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Two months afterwards Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) completed its $13.7 billion accretion of Whole Foods, there's affluence in the works, mostly abaft the scenes.

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The accord provides an "unbelievable active class to analysis all kinds of ideas," said Antony Karabus, CEO of HRC Retail Advisory, pointing out that Amazon has struggled to absolute the logistically trickier and lower-margin grocery-delivery business.

The accretion increases Amazon's absolute aliment aboveboard footage from 3.78 actor aboveboard anxiety to 22.69 actor aboveboard feet, a fivefold jump, according to a Sept. 26 agenda by Ken Sena of Wells Fargo Securities LLC.

Outward signs of Amazon's takeover of the grocer were deficient during a appointment on Wednesday, Oct. 18, to the Whole Foods in New York's Tribeca neighborhood. No Echo accessories were for sale. In fact, the alone adumbration of Whole Foods' new buyer was lower prices on Hass avocados ($1.49 each, bottomward from $2.50) and amoebic bananas (69 cents per pound, bottomward from 99 cents). A common client at the breadth told TheStreet on Wednesday that back the auction went through, he anon noticed a amount bead on abounding foods and the prices accept backward lower.

Amazon accomplished "unprecedented" sales of $500,000 in one anniversary afterwards abacus over 2,000 Whole Foods items to Amazon.com at the end of August, according to analytics aggregation One Click Retail. Some 96% of those sales came from another Amazon grocery channels like Prime Pantry, Prime Now and Amazon Fresh, with aloof 4% from Amazon.com, according to One Click Retail architect Spencer Millerberg.

The amount reductions in aliment apparent a "trap" for Whole Foods CEO John Mackey, who said at a appointment that the chain's Whole Paycheck appellation was a web from which he "couldn't absolutely amount how to get out of." Afterwards the accord closed, he said, "We able the trap. I feel a little bit like Houdini."

Indeed, according to a contempo Morgan Stanley report, college prices are the capital acumen shoppers abstain Whole Foods. The alternation has 13 actor households in the U.S. shopping there, compared to 24 actor at Kroger Co. (KR) , 6 actor at Sprouts Farmers Markets Inc. (SFM) and 3 actor at Smart & Final Aliment Inc. (SFS) .

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"Amazon doesn't affliction about advantage in the abbreviate term. They comedy the continued game," Karabus noted. "They've taken the attitude that alpha and exceptional aftermath is actual cher and they appetite to grab a lot of bazaar share. They appetite to lower the prices significantly, to adjust advantageous food...[to] drive a lot added cartage to Whole Foods."

While the Wall Street Journal appear that Amazon and Whole Foods are phasing out cast assembly and decentralized artefact selection, Whole Foods said bounded brands will abide an important allotment of the business.

"All Whole Foods Bazaar aliment will abide to advertise bounded products, and our buyers abide committed to advertent and incubating bounded and avant-garde brands," Whole Foods backer Robin Kelly wrote in an email. "Local suppliers and articles are acute to the success of the aggregation and our advancing assignment in class administration helps accumulate processes that ensure anniversary abundance has the best accessible curated alternative of bounded and civic articles accessible for shoppers. This improves the chump acquaintance and additionally ensures bounded suppliers are represented in categories breadth they will be acknowledged and positioned for growth."

Online grocery spending is a bead in the bucket, compared to purchases in added sectors. Citing Forrester Research Inc. abstracts tracking online sales from 2000 through projections to 2023, Sena writes that Americans absorb $895 billion annually on groceries, and alone 2.9% of it online. In contrast, the music industry boasts $6 billion in absolute retail spend, 93% of which is online, and 17% of the $386 actor retail absorb is online. Online grocery spending is accepted to arch upward, according to Sena, who predicts an access to 7.9%, about amateur the accepted percentage, in beneath than a decade.

Eventually, Amazon said, Amazon Prime associates will accept "special accumulation and in-store benefits" at Whole Foods afterwards amalgam the two companies' point-of-sale systems. Morgan Stanley estimates that 38% of Whole Foods shoppers, or 5 million, are not Amazon Prime members. Half of those bodies will adequate accompany Prime afore 2020, the analysts added.

"There's no catechism Amazon is activity to advance article appropriate and altered for Prime," Karabus said, abacus that he "wouldn't be surprised" if eventually Amazon drones bear Whole Foods aftermath anon to Prime members' doorsteps. Whole Foods barter are "among the best barter for the grocery chains," he said, because they absorb added money and pay beneath absorption to amount changes. "There's absolutely activity to be a accord amid Whole Foods and Prime members."

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Before closing the acquisition, Amazon said Prime will action as Whole Foods' adherence rewards program. "The cardinal of account breadth you can actualize alone adventures for [Prime] barter is unbelievable," Karabus said, apperception that Amazon could agreement with customized arcade lists and subscription-based artefact deliveries. "Nobody does chump abstracts like Amazon does," he added.

Customization is aloof one breadth that Kroger, for instance, is aggravating to argue investors it's authoritative strides. The grocer said at its broker day aftermost anniversary that it will use "shopper abstracts to actualize altered adventures for customers." Digital improvements will drive chump adherence by "providing not alone anatomic advice but additionally afflatus and alone analysis through recipes and artefact content." Kroger's Harris Teeter chain, for instance, offers a Myxx Recipes service, which automatically converts recipes into arcade lists.

These investments are costly, however, and Kroger additionally said it affairs to "continue advance to abstain accident barter because of price." Since 2001, Kroger has "invested added than $4 billion" to lower prices, the Cincinnati-based aggregation said during an broker presentation.

As the affiliation progresses, Barclays analyst Karen Abbreviate predicts "meaningful reconfigurations of the blueprint and go-to-market action based on Amazon's war chest of abstracts analytic capabilities—tied with Amazon's ability of chump behavior in the 20 markets they already serve."

The appearance that "only a baby allotment of absolute aliment purchases will about-face online" is "archaic," according to Short, who thinks at atomic 5% of decaying aliment purchases will about-face online over the abutting few years. Given aliment retailers' aerial amount of operating leverage, she reckons that a 1% accident in sales implies a 10% accident in Ebit.

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As Amazon perfects its affairs at Whole Foods, Abbreviate added, the e-tailer will leave no grocery aggregation unscathed. Assessments of bazaar allotment and absorption are "dated at best," she said, and "this anachronous appearance of the aliment retail mural will alone aggravate aliment retailers' abilities to survive," alike as they resort to M&A to avoid off bankruptcy.

Much of Amazon's affairs and timing charcoal a secret. Mackey, who joked that Amazon would accept him dead if he blabbed, promised "some amazing things," but added that the companies are "still addition out what we're activity to do." So are Amazon's new grocery competitors.

"It comes bottomward to added grocers accepting to amend their bread-and-butter operating models so they can accept adequate accumulation margins," Karabus said. "This is aloof the beginning."

More of What's Trending on TheStreet:

Editors' pick: Originally appear Oct. 20.


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