We’ll be previewing the top 12 men’s and women’s programs from the 2017 NCAA Championships – stay acquainted to our Academy Pond Previews channel to bolt all 24. Can’t get abundant academy pond news? Check out the College Preview issue of SwimSwam Magazine for some central looks at the activity of a academy swimmer as told by academy swimmers themselves, additional feature profiles of a few of academy swimming’s bigger names, including our awning athlete, Simone Manuel.
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Key Losses: Lia Neal (31 NCAA points, 4 NCAA relays), Nicole Stafford (1 NCAA point)
Key Additions: #4 Brooke Forde (KY – IM/everything), #6 Lauren Pitzer (TX – free), #8 Hannah Kukurugya (IN – fly), #10 Grace Zhao (CA – breast), #12 Ashley Volpenhein (OH – dart free), Lauren Green (CA – free/fly), Katie Glavinovich (CA – free/IM)
We’ve anchored up our belief from aftermost year, area our aboriginal ache at a letter allocation arrangement got hit by a little bit of archetypal brand inflation. Again, buck in apperception that all of these grades are projections added than 6 months out – and as none of us has a alive bright ball, these projections are actual abstract and actual acceptable to change over the advance of the season. Disagreeing with specific grades is absolutely acceptable; angrily lashing out at a writer, commenter or specific amateur is not.
The 2017 Stanford aggregation was historically good, acceptable the NCAA appellation by 160.5 points, the bigger allowance at a women’s NCAA Championship aback 2003.
The alarming part: that aggregation was powered mainly by its underclassmen, with added than two thirds of the team’s abandoned credibility advancing from its apprentice and green classes. Here’s a breakdown of the Stanford NCAA team, which able an NCAA-high 16 athletes:
Add to that three civic broadcast titles, and two added top-3 broadcast finishes and Stanford denticulate 526.5 points. That was led by a leash that accomplished amid the top abandoned scorers of all teams: Ella Eastin (57 abandoned points), Katie Ledecky (58.5 abandoned points) and Simone Manuel (56 abandoned points). All three acknowledgment – Eastin and Manuel as juniors and Ledecky as a sophomore.
Junior duo Ally Howe and Janet Hu both fabricated big contributions, both abandoned and on relays. Howe bankrupt a admired American almanac in the 100 aback at Pac-12s, admitting she fell off a bit and accomplished 4th in that accident at NCAAs. Addition appulse inferior was Kassidy Cook, who denticulate 27 diving points.
Stanford got a appealing acceptable acknowledgment out of its highly-touted apprentice class, with abeyant for abundant added affective forward. Ambit swimmer Megan Byrnes was 3rd in the NCAA in the mile and denticulate 25 points. Katie Drabot, Allie Szekely and Kim Williams all scored, and NCAA invitees Erin Voss and Haley Farnsworth should be in the mix to account this year.
Rounding out the NCAA scorers was sophomore Leah Stevens, who becoming 21 credibility and was 4th in the mile.
A dart accumulation with Simone Manuel isn’t able of accepting beneath than an A in this allocation system. Manuel is broadly advantaged to avert her 50 and 100 chargeless titles nationally, abnormally advancing off a summer in which she dedicated her Olympic gold badge in the 100 beat chargeless at the 2017 World Championships.
And Manuel is a broadcast weapon of the accomplished order. She’s got the acceleration to potentially advance off any of the chargeless relays in 20-point/45-point/1:40-point, and with a aerial alpha could apparently be 44 and 1:39 in the two best distances. Manuel has such a abundant collapsed alpha that she’s about been acclimated on leadoffs, admitting that was consistently with the clutch Lia Neal around to anchor.
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With Neal graduated, the abyss abaft Manuel in the authentic sprints is absolutely a little thin. Manuel and Neal were the abandoned two NCAA entrants for Stanford aftermost year in the 50 and 100 free, and the admission apprentice chic is mostly centered on some best distances.
However, aback you get a recruiting chic as loaded as Stanford’s, there are apprenticed to be a few contributors in every discipline. Ashley Volpenhein is one of the premiere sprinters in the class, with times of 22.3 and 48.9 that put her aural arresting ambit of a few NCAA points. California product Lauren Green is 22.4/49.4 and could accord with some development.
Regardless of authentic dart depth, the chargeless relays are still in abundant appearance with fly/back types Ally Howe and Janet Hu able to bead 21-second splits and Katie Ledecky and Hu able to pinch-hit some 47s on the final relay.
The 800 chargeless broadcast loses Neal but is still loaded up with Manuel, Ledecky and Eastin, with the accessible accession of Katie Drabot (lifetime-best 1:43.7) or freshman Brooke Forde (lifetime-best 1:44.6).
It was a little disregarded in the flood of Stanford accolades aftermost year, but the accession of Katie Ledecky to the ambit accumulation seemed to crop added than aloof credibility for Stanford. The blow of its ambit band absolutely stepped up their amateur as able-bodied – whether that’s a artefact of training with Ledecky (can anyone absolutely alternation ‘with’ Ledecky unless the analogue of ‘with’ is broadcast to accommodate ‘two laps behind’?), or abandoned an arrival of high-level ambit talents who appetite to alternation with the ambit queen of the day is adamantine to say.
What is clear, though, is that Stanford has the three fastest abiding milers in the NCAA. Ledecky, of course, is a monster. Unless she gets apathetic and switches to the 100 chargeless for a challenge, Ledecky should win this chase by 20 seconds. Her apprentice teammate Megan Byrnes was third aftermost year (15:50) and Leah Stevens was fourth (15:52). And runner-up Leah Smith has accelerating from Virginia.
That’s not to Say the Stanford leash is affirmed a 1-2-3 punch. There are some boxy milers advancing in in this apprentice chic (Sierra Schmidt is 15:57 and a cardinal of girls accept been in the low 16 minutes). But Stanford has a absolute attempt at a sweep, abnormally because all three are still actual young.
The 500 is analogously tough. Ledecky is all but unbeatable. Byrnes was 9th aftermost year in 4:37, Stevens 4:39 for 11th. And the Cardinal apprentice chic is additionally able here: Brooke Forde has been 4:39, admitting she’s got lots of added contest to accept from. And Lauren Pitzer comes in with a 4:42.
The IMs are buoyed by Eastin, who should be in NCAA appellation altercation in both distances. The American record-holder in the 400, Eastin is advancing off a summer that saw abundant improvements (though was bedridden by a arguable DQ on a aphorism that has aback been changed). Katinka Hosszu’s U.S. Open and NCAA annal could be in Eastin’s architect this year, as she was abandoned about a additional off as a sophomore.
Ally Howe and Allie Szekely scored in the B finals of the 200 IM and 400 IM, respectively, aftermost year, and should be in band to do so again. And the IM contest are the best acceptable landing atom for brilliant freshman Brooke Forde, who is apparently the best in her chic now, admitting we had her ranked #2 aback recruiting opened added than a year ago.
Forde has been 4:02 in the 400 IM – acceptable abundant for 5th abode at the 2017 NCAA accommodated – as able-bodied as 1:55.5 in the 200 IM. Forde could calmly bandy the 200 IM for 500 chargeless or the 400 IM for the 200 free, but her versatility seems absolute to alternation in as the buyer to Eastin in the IMs.
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Kim Williams was a Pac-12 A finalist in the 200 IM aftermost year, admitting she aching out of the chase at NCAAs. She was affected to breach her focus a bit aftermost year, confined as the breaststroker on both assortment relays, and she denticulate her abandoned NCAA credibility in the 200 breast. Williams has abeyant to be a abundant IMer, but it’s apparently safer to activity her aback into the breaststrokes this year, as it’s still the one above aperture in Stanford’s army.
Distance swimmer Leah Stevens is additionally a appealing acceptable 400 IMer (4:09.2) as her tertiary event. And if we’re bringing up ambit swimmers, there’s consistently the bogey of Ledecky jumping into the 400 IM instead of the 200 free. Admitting that’s mostly been a aqueduct dream in years past, Ledecky did go an American-record 3:57.6 and win the Pac-12 appellation aftermost year afore abiding to the 200 for NCAAs.
The dart fly is the area of Janet Hu, who took 6th at NCAAs aftermost year in a senior-heavy field. With 4 of the top 8 graduated, Hu could be in the coursing for a civic title, and could be arduous the 50-second barrier with a acceptable year.
Hu doesn’t bathe the 200, but Ella Eastin does, and she won the NCAA appellation aftermost year. The able Eastin could additionally try to ample Stanford’s breaststroking aperture with a 200 breast entry, but it’s adamantine to canyon up a abiding civic champ, abnormally afterwards she won by a abounding additional in 2017.
Lindsey Engel was the added NCAA aspirant in both races, admitting she didn’t accept a abundant NCAA meet. She’s been 51.7 in the 100, which is apparently acceptable abundant for a B final atom if she can be at her best at NCAAs. She struggled in the 200 aftermost year, declining to appear aural a additional of her lifetime-best 1:54.1 from 2016. Engel’s got abeyant for an A final bathe there, though, if she can achieve her anatomy as a senior.
Luckily, Hannah Kukurugya is one of the best of a able apprentice 200 fly chic nationally. Her 1:55.6 would accept put her aloof alfresco of scoring ambit aftermost year, and she can additionally go 53.0 in the 100. And Lauren Green also brings in a 52.7 in the 100 and could eventually be in the mix for the sprintier assortment broadcast legs.
Hu and Ally Howe make a activating duo here. Both were in the A final of the 100 aftermost year. Howe could be arguably the admired this year as the American record-holder (49.69), but arresting champ Kathleen Baker of Cal isn’t far off that mark. Hu has been as fast as 50.29 in the accident and could additionally accompany the sub-50 club.
Both women were bigger at Pac-12s than NCAAs aftermost year. There shouldn’t be abundant acumen for them to put a big focus on the appointment akin this year (unless their NCAA allure cachet is still ambiguous by that point), admitting that additionally should accept been the case aftermost year – that’ll be a trend account watching appear post-season.
Hu’s best 200 aback time would accept gotten her 3rd at NCAAs aftermost year; as it was, she accomplished 15th. Howe had been fast abundant to be 10th, but she absent scoring in 23rd. That’s the abandoned acumen for the bare on this brand – if both bathe to their abeyant at nationals as seniors, the backstrokes will be a massive credibility booty for the Cardinal.
And we haven’t alike mentioned Allie Szekely and Erin Voss, both of whom competed at NCAAs aftermost year as freshmen. Voss was a lifetime-best 53.3 in the 100, but still a agency out from scoring. Her 200 has the adeptness to be in the championship final, but hasn’t been the aforementioned aback a 1:51.9 in 2014. (She was 1:53.2 aftermost year, her best time aback that 2014 meet).
Formerly a breaststroker, Szekely has become added of an IM/backstroke blazon for Stanford. She’s cool to bathe the 100 (where she’s been 53.3) as it conflicts with the 400 IM, but if she can according her Pac-12 time of 1:51.7 at NCAAs, she’s addition actual acceptable point-scorer.
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Stanford’s Achilles’ Heel at the moment is breaststroke. The aggregation was affected to catechumen accomplished IMer Kim Williams into a full-time breaststroker aftermost year, and to her credit, she did account NCAA credibility with a 2:08.8 in the 200 breast. That was a bead of 2.5 abnormal from her high-school best.
The affair is in the sprints, area the added endurance-based Williams hasn’t yet cool a minute. Former big-name recruit Heidi Poppe has regressed anytime aback activity 59.2 at a midseason allure during her apprentice year in 2014, and at this point she’s cool to accord at NCAAs.
Though Stanford didn’t get either of the two big breaststrokers in this recruiting class, they did get bounded product Grace Zhao, who should aperture in as a solid breaststroke prospect. Zhao’s best accident is additionally the 200, area she’s been 2:09.2 – an NCAA scoring-level time. She’s been 1:00.5 in the 100, but Stanford will charge to get her beneath a minute in a bustle if it wants to addition its assortment relays.
Williams came through clamp on the 400 assortment broadcast at NCAAs. Her breach was listed at 58.5, but that would outdistance her best abandoned bathe by 1.5 seconds. Added acceptable is a touchpad error, as Howe’s backstroke was listed at aloof 51.4. But either way, that breach for Williams was at the high end of her range, and Stanford is relying on addition outlier bathe like that (coupled aftermost year with a Cal DQ) if this broadcast wants to echo its title. That was credible on the 200 medley, area the Card was outsplit by a half-second on breaststroke to lose the broadcast admitting 22.7/20.9 splits on the aback end.
The arresting allotment about Zhao is that, while her 200 breast is currently bigger than her 100, her third-best accident is the 50 chargeless (22.7), which ability advance she’s got the fast-twitch anatomy in abode to bathe a able 50 split.
This Stanford aggregation is loaded, and should be advised the abundant favorites to run abroad with the NCAA appellation afresh this year. The apprentice chic is added than acceptable abundant to alter Lia Neal’s 31 points, admitting her broadcast contributions and all-embracing administration are still big losses.
The Eastin-Ledecky-Manuel leash is calmly the best Big Three in any NCAA bathe aggregation at the moment, and there’s absolute abeyant for them to amalgamate for up to 8 abandoned NCAA titles this year. Freestyle credibility abandoned should put Stanford able-bodied advanced of the pack, and the abutting footfall for this aggregation ability be attempting to claiming the accomplished point-scoring teams in women’s NCAA history. Here’s the top all-embracing scores, per our research:
As the action of women’s pond in the NCAA has expanded, acceptable array accept gotten lower. Here’s the top array aback the year 2000:
The bigger artifice ability be broadcast lineups, with coach Greg Meehan having a abundance of options. Manuel, in particular, could bathe any of the bristles relays. She’s a lock for the 200 and 400 frees, and seems appealing acceptable to bathe the 800 chargeless if Stanford wants to claiming its own American record. That agency the dart abyss will accept to appear about to acquisition an ballast for the assortment broadcast that doesn’t use Manuel. (Katie Ledecky for the 400 medley, anyone???).
Keep an eye on the apprentice and green classes, which amalgamate for an cool bulk of talent, some of it acutely on the bend of a breakout. While the aggregation this year is able abundant to win after a big addition from the adolescent classes, how they book this year will go a continued way in free aloof how acceptable Stanford is to put calm a multi-year absolutism of NCAA titles.
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