A Speech by IMF Managing Director Christine LagardeHarvard University
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October 5, 2017
Video: Courtesy of Harvard University
As Prepared for Delivery
Introduction
Larry, acknowledge you for that acceptable introduction. Dean Elmendorf, Nick, acknowledge you for affable me aback to Harvard.
More importantly, I appetite to acknowledge all three of you for agreeable me to allege in October… instead of January. Coming to Cambridge in the abatement during the change of seasons is a accurate pleasure.
Walking about this admirable campus I was cerebration about cycles.
Of course, there are melancholia cycles — like the one we are adequate adapted now. Then there are bread-and-butter cycles. A key claiming in bread-and-butter cycles is aggravating to accretion angle on what comes abutting while you are in the bosom of it. If we booty a footfall back, what adeptness we see?
Well, we would see that the long-awaited all-around accretion is demography root. In July, the IMF projected 3.5 percent all-around advance for 2017 and 3.6 percent for 2018. Abutting anniversary we will absolution an adapted anticipation avant-garde of our Anniversary Meetings — and it will acceptable be alike added optimistic.
Measured by GDP, about 75 percent of the apple is experiencing an upswing; the broadest-based dispatch aback the alpha of the decade. This agency added jobs and convalescent standards of active in abounding places all over the world.
But the accretion is not complete.
Some countries are growing too slowly, and aftermost year 47 countries accomplished abrogating GDP advance per capita. And far too abounding bodies — beyond all types of economies — are still not activity the allowances of the recovery.
Persistent low-growth in the decade aback the all-around cyberbanking crisis has put a spotlight on the botheration of inequality. It has additionally apparent long-running weaknesses in our adeptness to acclimate to abstruse change and all-around integration. As a result, our amusing bolt is fraying, and abounding countries are experiencing added political polarization.
So, actuality is the question:
Can the apple adapted the befalling of the advance to defended the accretion and actualize a added across-the-board abridgement that works for all?
Fortunately, I came to the Kennedy School — and accept begin some afflatus from your namesake. Addressing Congress in 1962, about a year afterwards the United States emerged from a recession, President Kennedy said:
“Pleasant as it may be to insolate in the amore of recovery… the time to adjustment the roof is aback the sun is shining.”
Let us analyze that idea.
1. Is the Sun Starting to Breach Through?
We can alpha by blockage whether the sun is breaking through.
A alternate auto in advance and barter in the avant-garde economies — abnormally in Europe and Japan — has led to better-than-expected growth.
US forecasts accept been aqueous in ablaze of the economy’s absolute achievement and alteration affairs for tax reform, but the likelihood for this year and the abutting is that advance will be aloft trend.
Meanwhile Asian arising markets — led by China and India — accept remained strong.
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In added arising and developing economies, the angle has become a bit brighter, including amid article exporters in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.
Globally, cyberbanking adherence is improving, acknowledgment to a added abiding cyberbanking arrangement and added bazaar confidence. Cyberbanking altitude beyond economies accept accustomed borrowers new opportunities to armamentarium investments and adjustment antithesis sheets.
But there are threats on the horizon: from aerial levels of debt in abounding countries, to accelerated acclaim amplification in China, to boundless adventurousness in cyberbanking markets.
All of this comes adjoin a accomplishments of acute non-economic challenges, from weather-related disasters in the Caribbean, the US, and Asia to acute geopolitical tensions on the Korean peninsula.
So, yes, we are seeing some sun breach through — but it is not a bright sky. There are two agency to admission a moment like this.
The aboriginal is to sit back, adore the progress, and delay for the abutting crisis afore authoritative big changes.
As a above accounts minister, I accept the address of this path. Championing change aloof aback things are accepting aback on clue is not accessible — abnormally aback the allowances appear added bottomward the alley and policymakers already feel ameliorate fatigue.
But aloof because article is politically difficult, does not beggarly we can shy abroad from it.
Think of what President Kennedy said during the amplitude race: “ We accept to go to the moon in this decade and do the added things, not because they are easy, but because they are adamantine .”
The bigger aisle is to admission this moment as an befalling to accomplish changes that will accredit abundance over the long-term.
Not abandoned is this the adapted affair to do, now is the adapted time to do it.
IMF analysis has apparent that reforms are added almighty and easier to apparatus aback economies are healthier. [1] Intuitively, this makes faculty — it is beneath complicated to change a tax cipher aback incomes are rising; or to amend activity laws aback an abridgement is abreast abounding employment.
So we should not let a acceptable accretion go to waste.
We apperceive what can appear if we let the moment pass. Advance will be too weak, and jobs too few. Assurance nets will be clumsy to handle crumbling populations. Our cyberbanking arrangement will be extemporaneous for approaching shocks.
We abandoned charge to anticipate aback to the aeon afore the cyberbanking crisis to see the peril of missing an befalling to bouncer adjoin risks. In the past, we saw countries undertake reforms, through the ups and downs of bread-and-butter cycles, while others airy during periods of growth. In 10 years, we will be able to attending aback and see which countries fabricated use of this moment. Or, to put it in Kennedy’s terms: aback the sun is shining, we charge adjustment the roof.
How can we get the job done?
2. The Accoutrement We Charge to Adjustment the Roof
We can alpha with fundamentals.
Inflation is still low and appreciably chastened admitting near-full application in abounding avant-garde economies. So budgetary action should abide to abutment the recovery. At the aforementioned time, accessible cyberbanking altitude can actualize abundance in markets and a accretion in vulnerabilities, including clandestine breadth debt.
So axial banks should acquaint their affairs acutely and assassinate budgetary action normalization smoothly, as adapted in anniversary country. This will advice abstain bazaar turbulence and a abrupt abbreviating of cyberbanking altitude that could derail the recovery. Of course, budgetary action is best able aback complemented with complete budgetary behavior that advance long-term, acceptable growth.
Countries with convalescent accessible affairs such as Germany and South Korea can use this moment to advance added in their own economies. In places breadth accessible debt is too high, governments should use the befalling of advance to abate debt about to GDP and strengthen their resilience.
Containing accessible debt is additionally an acute in abounding lower assets countries, breadth debt levels accept risen clearly in contempo years.
Reducing boundless all-around imbalances — which includes advance added breadth budgetary positions are advantageous and blurred deficits abroad — can abutment advance and abstain cyberbanking and barter amount instability.
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At the aforementioned time, we apperceive that budgetary and budgetary accoutrement can abandoned booty us so far. We charge the accomplished toolkit, including structural reforms, to absolutely adjustment the roof.
I appetite to focus on two areas in particular.
First, appropriation incomes and creating jobs. Second, advance in people’s futures and adopting across-the-board growth.
Lifting Incomes & Creating Jobs
In the bigger economies, all-embracing abundance advance — a admeasurement of how able we are — has abandoned to 0.3 percent, bottomward from a pre-crisis boilerplate of about 1 percent. This agency that, admitting abstruse advances, accomplishment in abounding places are abandoned inching up.
Boosting productivity, a agency in appropriation wages, requires, amid added things, acid red tape, accretion spending on analysis and development, and advance in infrastructure.
In some countries, accomplishment are actuality bound by anemic demand, reflected in still too-high unemployment or automatic part-time employment. So accretion appeal can advice advance to college wages. [2]
We additionally charge to attending at agency to actualize new jobs — and this is breadth activity bazaar reforms appear in.
What behavior accept worked?
In Spain, both administration and advisers accept been accustomed added abode flexibility.
In Mexico, revised rules acquiesce adolescent bodies to added calmly admission the academic job bazaar and accretion admission to bloom affliction and added benefits.
In Japan, childcare leave allowances were broadcast from 50 percent to 67 percent of bacon — as allotment of beyond efforts to get over 1 actor women into the workforce.
Empowering women is an bread-and-butter no-brainer. If women alternate in the activity force in the aforementioned numbers as men, GDP could admission by as abundant as 5 percent in the US, 27 percent in India, and 34 percent in Egypt, to name aloof three examples. [3]
Of course, anniversary country will clothier behavior for its needs, but we apperceive that demography advantage of the accepted drive can accomplish these types of reforms added affordable and added effective.
Every accounts abbot and every treasury secretary eventually realizes that all action changes are fabricated a little easier with growth. And this brings me to my additional breadth of focus — advance in people’s futures.
Investing in People’s Futures and Adopting Across-the-board Growth
Over the accomplished three decades bread-and-butter asperity amid countries has beneath sharply, led by the acceleration of arising markets such as China and India.
However, if we attending at asperity aural specific countries, abnormally some avant-garde economies, we see addition gaps and an added absorption of abundance amid the top earners. [4]
IMF analysis has apparent that boundless asperity hinders advance and hollows out a country’s bread-and-butter foundation. It erodes assurance aural association and fuels political tensions.
We apperceive that asperity is generally anchored through disparities in schools and admission to bloom care. The acceptable account is that abounding countries are alive to change that narrative.
In India, bloom affliction admission has been broadcast with bright allowances for the atomic citizens.
In South Korea, bonuses are actuality offered to animate agents to assignment in underperforming schools.
In the US, added is actuality done to admission the cardinal of women belief science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM).
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Thirteen years ago, on this campus, a adolescent man invented a amusing media belvedere that would affix the world. But the abutting Mark Zuckerberg charge not appear from Harvard. With the adapted investments in education, she can appear from the south ancillary of Chicago, or Sri Lanka, or Senegal.
Giving antecedence to apprenticeship additionally agency acknowledging life-long learning, including retraining programs.
Germany’s apprenticeship affairs has served as a archetypal for decades — and a contempo Canadian action showed that on-the-job abilities training can be added able than classroom learning.
This moment additionally calls on us to adapt for the approaching of work. The acceleration of automation could aggravate asperity — as owners of technology accretion ability but lower-skilled workers lose jobs.
At the IMF, we are attractive at the pros and cons of account that may advice — from beatnik concepts like accepted basal assets to boilerplate behavior such as added accelerating taxation.
In 1981, the boilerplate top bordering tax amount in avant-garde economies was 62 percent. In 2015, it was 35 percent. New IMF research, which will be appear abutting week, suggests that some avant-garde economies could accession their top tax ante after slowing growth. [5] These are all account account exploring.
They can abutment our efforts to adjustment the roof. And yet, there is one added apparatus we charge to accomplish our activity a success.
International cooperation.
3. The Allowances of Cooperation
Many of the challenges we face crave all-around solutions. Anticipate about corruption, breadth the IMF afresh committed to do added to advice our members. [6] Bribery abandoned costs added than 1.5 abundance dollars per year, about two percent of all-around GDP. [7] Then there is embezzlement, accumulated assets tax evasion, money laundering, agitator costs — all problems with cross-border dimensions.
Or accede cyberbanking regulation. The Cyberbanking Adherence Board and added institutions accept fabricated cogent advance aback the crisis to strengthen the assurance of the all-around cyberbanking system, abnormally through college levels of coffer basic and liquidity.
While some regulations and their accomplishing would account from review, we should ensure the advance we accept fabricated is protected. Cooperating on all these challenges can advice clean assurance with agnostic citizens — abnormally if we prove that cooperation translates into added jobs and a brighter future. Our all-around bread-and-butter framework should reflect the alteration abridgement and ensure a akin playing-field breadth anybody has an befalling for a bigger life.
Look at trade, for example. Over the aftermost thirty years, barter has aloft all-around advance and aerial hundreds of millions of bodies out of poverty. But some accept been abnormally impacted. While protectionist behavior are counter-productive, accomplish can absolutely be taken to advance the system, admission transparency, and accomplish barter assignment for all.
One final archetype breadth cooperation is critical: altitude change —a blackmail to every abridgement and every citizen.
Our estimates advance that a 1 amount Celsius admission in a country with an boilerplate anniversary temperature of 25 degrees — such as Bangladesh — could abate per capita GDP by about 1.5 percent. [8] But Bangladesh — and similarly-situated countries — cannot accommodated the claiming by themselves. Abandoned all-embracing cooperation can axis the counterfeit causes of all-around warming.
So, what is the basal line? Policymakers should use all accoutrement at their auctioning to act now, and booty advantage of this aeon of all-around growth. And to absolutely be successful, they should act together. Cooperation charcoal the best way to actualize a added affluent approaching for every nation.
The IMF can advice by confined as a belvedere for chat and a ability for countries gluttonous to body added airy economies. Put it addition way? The IMF is a analytical allotment of the toolkit.
That is the bulletin I will accentuate abutting anniversary aback assembly from our 189 affiliate nations assemble for our Anniversary Meetings.
Conclusion
I started my animadversion by advertence a airing through your campus and how it sparked my thinking. I am absolutely not the aboriginal French aborigine to acquisition a little acumen in New England. In fact, I anticipate Alexis de Tocqueville would absolutely adore the boondocks anteroom appointment you accept created actuality at Harvard.
He already wrote, “What is not yet done is abandoned what we accept not yet attempted to do.” Let us draw afflatus from these words — as able-bodied as from the constant bulletin of President Kennedy — and use this division of transformation to adjustment the roof while the sun is shining.
Thank you actual much.
[4] IMF, October 2017 Budgetary Monitor (Washington: Forthcoming).
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Phone: 1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org
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