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Among the starting pitchers in the 2017 World Series, the Astros and Dodgers amalgamate for six All-Stars, three Cy Adolescent winners, and a Cy Adolescent runner-up. There’s affluence of brilliant power, but the two headliners are Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw, the aftermost two pitchers to win an MVP award.

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Verlander and Kershaw bandy with altered hands, appear from altered backgrounds, accept spent their careers in altered leagues, and came to their accepted teams in altered ways. But they’re both acceptable Hall of Famers with complicated relationships with the postseason, and anniversary one is in chase of his aboriginal title. Amid Verlander and Kershaw, the bigger aerialist will acceptable adjudge which ancillary walks abroad with a ring.

Whatever comes abutting is inseparable from what already happened.

“I actually adulation Justin Verlander.”

That’s what José Altuve told Fox Sports’ Tom Verducci afterwards he’d gone 2-for-4 with a home run and three RBIs in Bold 6 of the ALCS on October 20. Altuve and the Astros had taken the aboriginal two abecedarian of the alternation at home, afresh gone algid in New York, scoring bristles runs absolute in three beeline losses. Their seven-run access in Bold 6 kept the Astros—a aggregation with a history of boxy LCS losses—from activity home afore the World Alternation again, and set the date for Saturday’s series-clinching 4-0 win over the Yankees.

But in the aftermath, the postseason’s blemish superstar aggregate acclaim on his newest teammate, a 34-year-old right-handed abode who’d kept the Astros in the bold connected abundant to acquisition their bats; Verlander, who took the bank alive that blemish could advance to an aboriginal vacation, threw seven scoreless innings.

The adumbration of Randy Johnson actually looms ample over best things, but it looms metaphorically over the Astros. On July 31, 1998, the Astros beatific three affairs to the Mariners for the approaching Hall of Famer, who was about to about-face 35 and set to hit chargeless bureau at season’s end. Johnson fabricated 11 starts in the season’s final two months and won 10 of them, with a 1.28 ERA and 116 strikeouts in 84.1 innings, which was an agitative arrangement aback aback the leaguewide K/9 cardinal was 6.61, not 8.34 like it was in 2017. He was a 4.3-WAR abecedarian in 11 starts for the Astros. Tom Glavine, who won the NL Cy Adolescent that year, was account 6.1 WAR in 33 starts.

It about didn’t amount that the Big Unit absent both his starts in the NLDS, or that he larboard for Arizona afterwards the analysis and won a appellation there, or that the three players traded for him—Carlos Guillén, John Halama, and Freddy García—became key cogs on a Mariners aggregation that won 116 abecedarian in 2001. Nineteen years later, those two months of Johnson in those abominable navy-and-gold Astros uniforms were like a abundant beer you had already at a bar you can’t bethink the name of—you still bethink the aftertaste and you’ll absorb the blow of your activity dabbling about liquor abundance refrigerators and pub airheaded aggravating to acquisition it again.

Miraculously, the Astros did. The aftermost time the Astros dealt for a top abode at the borderline while aggravating to consolidate a playoff position, it was Scott Kazmir, who had a 2.38 ERA for Oakland at the time of the barter in 2015 but fit with the team’s address of team-building beneath GM Jeff Luhnow. Amid his accession from St. Louis in 2011 and the Astros’ acknowledgment to contention, Luhnow—who has degrees in economics and engineering from Penn and an MBA from Northwestern, and who spent his pre-baseball career as a business executive—cultivated a acceptability as a acute GM. He went for a adamantine catchbasin two years afore Sam Hinkie angry the NBA upside bottomward by accomplishing the same, and he abounding his advanced appointment with Baseball Prospectus staffers.

But insofar as Luhnow’s administration has been smart, it’s been business-school smart, not mad-scientist smart. The Astros developed Altuve and Dallas Keuchel aloft anyone’s wildest expectations, but they additionally managed to buy Lance McCullers out of a charge to the University of Florida by atom a brace actor dollars off Carlos Correa’s signing bonus. They approved to do the aforementioned with aerial academy pitchers Mac Marshall and Jacob Nix two years afterwards by reneging on a benefit activity to no. 1 all-embracing aces Brady Aiken, but got austere aback Aiken absitively to re-enter the abutting year’s draft. But alike then, Houston acclimated the advantage aces from that to abstract Alex Bregman. Admitting arena in the fourth-largest burghal in the United States and fielding a acceptable team, the Astros accept yet to able the top bisected of the alliance in payroll. It’s beneath art, added arbitrage.

The cerebration abaft accepting Kazmir followed that pattern. Kazmir, a top-end abecedarian with the Rays in his aboriginal 20s, had battled injuries and relearned how to angle afore reemerging with Cleveland and Oakland and afresh catastrophe up with the Astros. As an undersize, injury-prone 31-year-old chargeless abettor to be, Kazmir was added an upside comedy than a architecture block.

Not Verlander, who will amount the Astros $20 actor a year through his age-36 analysis in 2019. He is a aloft Cy Adolescent champ and AL MVP, the aftermost abode to booty home that honor. He is a near-certain Hall of Famer, a superstar, and because of his fastball, his accessible smile, and his assurance to the archetypal and extra Kate Upton, a celebrity, which is abnormal for a baseball player, decidedly a non-Yankee.

There is no bigger angle to draw out of the pond than Verlander, and the after-effects accept been greater than anyone could accept expected. The Astros aboriginal apparent him during a abode affair amid abecedarian of a September 2 doubleheader adjoin the Mets—the aboriginal baseball activity in Houston aback Hurricane Harvey, during which buyer Jim Crane fielded questions not alone about his team’s role in the city’s recovery, but additionally his agleam new toy.

Verlander won all bristles of his regular-season starts and had an ERA of 1.06 over that span. In three starts and a abatement actualization in the postseason, Verlander has a 4-0 almanac and a 1.46 ERA. That’s nine appearances in an Astros compatible and nine wins.

Maybe Altuve was aloof aggravating to be funny. But maybe you accept to actually adulation Justin Verlander.

I adulation it aback able pitchers played football as kids but didn’t comedy quarterback. Twins anticipation Tyler Jay, for instance, grew up alfresco of Chicago and admired Bears acknowledgment man Devin Hester, so he volunteered to comedy receiver in adjustment to accept a adventitious to acknowledgment kicks.

Nobody has a bigger alibi for not arena QB than Clayton Kershaw, who grew up in the Dallas suburbs and played abhorrent line, because the team’s quarterback was Matthew Stafford, now of the Detroit Lions. The adolescence photos with Stafford are one of two must-tell apparatus to the Kershaw agent story.

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The added is Public Enemy No. 1.

Kershaw was the seventh-overall aces in the 2006 abstract out of Highland Park Aerial School. He followed the abundant Texas abecedarian casting attitude of actuality big and accepting a adamantine fastball and a beautiful, looping curveball. Texas aerial academy pitchers appear ample and hard-throwing, like Roger Clemens and Noah Syndergaard, but the loudest advertising is aloof for the ones who can circuit a appealing curve, like Kershaw, Josh Beckett, and Nolan Ryan, whose fable in the accompaniment is such that you’d anticipate that in accession to throwing seven no-hitters he’d additionally invented brisket and fought adjoin Santa Anna at San Jacinto.

Kershaw was a good-enough anticipation to get drafted advanced of academy pitchers such as Max Scherzer and Tim Lincecum, but the actuality that he fell to no. 7 all-embracing shows that cipher saw the accepted adaptation of Kershaw coming.

Least of all Sean Casey, the adept aboriginal baseman who stepped in adjoin a 19-year-old Kershaw in bounce training in 2008. Video of the battle has inexplicably abolished from the internet, but the accident has taken on a activity of its own, like Babe Ruth’s alleged shot. Kershaw froze Casey with a absolutely emblematic two-strike hook. Casey, who would go on to hit .322 that year, wobbled at the knees like a lovestruck bairn wildebeest accomplishing the Funky Chicken. Vin Scully was stricken with amusement and produced the band that will go on Kershaw’s Hall of Fame plaque: “Holy mackerel! He aloof bankrupt off Public Enemy No. 1!”

Kershaw fabricated his big alliance admission two and a bisected months later, on May 25, and bankrupt off Public Enemy No. 1 408 times in his age-20 season. That includes two abatement appearances in the Dodgers’ NLCS accident to the Phillies, as Kershaw, who had a 4.26 ERA in 107.2 innings as a rookie, bootless to accomplish the playoff rotation.

He got there the abutting year, and pitched able-bodied in a 6.2-inning no-decision adjoin Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals in Bold 2 of the NLDS. He threw four scoreless innings in Bold 1 of the NLCS adjoin the Phillies afore a five-run fifth sunk him, afresh pitched in abatement afterwards Vicente Padilla was agape out aboriginal in the absolute Bold 5.

In October 2009 Kershaw was still aloof 21, an age aback best bodies are aggravating to scrounge up apple-pie shirts for job fairs, not aggravating to outpitch Cole Hamels with a cruise to the World Alternation on the line. By this point, Kershaw’s actuality and success at a about adolescent age (2.79 ERA in 2009) augured abundant potential, if alone he could breach healthy, abate his 4.8 BB/9 ratio, and angle added into games.

We had no idea.

Remember aback Justin Verlander was done up?

In 2014, he was a below-average abode for the aboriginal time in his career. He accustomed 104 becoming runs, best in the American League, and acquaint an ERA of 85, the affliction of any abounding analysis in his career. Verlander’s boilerplate fastball acceleration was bottomward to 93.3 afar per hour in 2014 and 93.4 in 2015, 3 mph beneath his peak. Afterwards about a decade of absolute health—which for a starting abode in this day and age is like accepting X-ray vision—Verlander absent the aboriginal two and a bisected months of the 2015 attack with an afflicted appropriate triceps.

Verlander had consistently been able to bear abundant workloads; from his abecedarian year in 2006 through 2014, he fabricated at atomic 30 starts every year, and from 2007 through 2014 he pitched at atomic 200 innings a year. He led the alliance in innings pitched three times and batters faced twice, and in 2011 he became the aftermost big alliance abode to bandy 250 innings in a approved season.

In 1998, Rany Jazayerli, afresh autograph for Baseball Prospectus, came up with a carbon alleged abode corruption points, tallying not alone aerial angle counts but additionally weighting the cardinal the added over 100 pitches a abecedarian went. Then, as now, we couldn’t absolutely analyze the specific breaking point at which single-start fatigue does abiding accident to a pitcher’s arm, but this was a start.

Here’s breadth Verlander ranked in abode corruption credibility anniversary year from 2006 to 2014:

At the time, it looked like Verlander was advantageous the amount for activity through his 20s as if the rules of abode abrasion didn’t administer to him. He was 32 in 2015, with 10 years of abundant MLB workloads angry to his arm, additional three years of abundant academy workloads at Old Dominion afore that. Verlander’s K/9 arrangement alone to 6.9 in 2014 afterwards it had hovered about 9.0 from 2010 to 2013. The six-year, $162 actor arrangement addendum he’d alive with Detroit in 2013 went from the amount you pay to apply the best abode in the bold to a liability, article the Tigers would accept to escape.

Verlander bounced aback aloft his acknowledgment in 2015, with a 3.38 ERA in 20 starts, and in 2016, his K/9 arrangement rose to 10.0, advocacy him to aural aloof bristles credibility of assault his aloft assistant Rick Porcello for his additional Cy Young. The acceleration and arm-side run that had bare his fastball came back, and Verlander started application his slider added and his changeup less.

It was like the acceptable old days, but not quite. The adolescent Verlander was faultless, but as he age-old he’d apparent himself to be vulnerable, if alone temporarily.

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In his youth, Kershaw’s go-to out angle was Public Enemy No. 1, but afresh he started to advance a slider. There’s a academy of anticipation that a starting abode care to accept aloof one breaking pitch, aback developing a slider and ambit at the aforementioned time can draw time and absorption abroad from the stronger pitch, or in a worst-case book the two can concoction calm into a gooey, conspicuously hittable slurve.

Kershaw threw aloof bristles sliders as a rookie, and in 2009 he threw the angle 9.4 percent of the time. In 2010, he angled that amount and cut bottomward on his curveballs by added than half, and acquaint career bests in innings and airing rate. The abutting year, Kershaw added 2 mph and an inch of vertical breach to his slider and won his aboriginal strikeout title, his aboriginal ERA title, and his aboriginal Cy Young. From 2011 through 2015, Kershaw was at atomic a six-win abode every year and won four ERA titles and three Cy Youngs, never finishing worse than third.

In 2014, he became the aboriginal abode aback Verlander to win the MVP, admitting missing six starts due to a aback injury. He acquaint a 1.77 ERA and addled out 10.8 batters per nine innings, both of which led all pitchers, and admitting the absent starts he still threw 198.1 innings. The abutting year he became the 15th abode in MLB history, and the aboriginal in added than a decade, to bang out 300 batters in a season. In 2016, Kershaw’s aback abnormal came aback worse than ever, attached him to 21 starts and 149 innings, which is a shame; if he’d pitched 13 added innings, he would accept annihilated the single-season strikeout-to-walk record.

A band like that from a Dodgers left-hander invites one allegory aloft all others:

That’s one of the best six-year runs in MLB history—it alveolate Koufax into the Hall of Fame all on its own—and Kershaw’s about akin it. And in his six big alliance seasons afore that run, Koufax was never abundant added than an boilerplate pitcher, while Kershaw has two four-win seasons afore his six-year run and one afterwards it, and he’s still going.

When Kershaw became the accord best abode in baseball, Verlander is the guy he dethroned. In 2009, Verlander began a band of bristles beeline All-Star appearances, and in that amount he won three strikeout titles, two ERA titles, an MVP, and a Cy Young, while missing out on a additional in 2012 by aloof four points.

Verlander is one of six alive pitchers to acquire 40 bWAR in his aboriginal 10 seasons—a aeon that includes a two-start assignment in 2005 and that barbarous 2014 campaign. From 2009 through 2013, Verlander averaged 234 innings pitched, 239 strikeouts, 6.1 bWAR, and a 139 ERA . Those totals would accept landed him first, fourth, second, and angry for fifth, respectively, in the American Alliance this year.

The Baseball-Reference folio speaks for itself, but one affair that gets absent in the numbers is how accessible aiguille Verlander fabricated it look. Booty this 2011 alpha in which he addled out 14 Diamondbacks.

Verlander has an ideal pitcher’s body—long, broad-shouldered, and lean, and he’s aloof calmly auctioning 97 at the corners, painting the edges with his slider and curve, afresh aloof accomplishing a lap of the bank while his infielders bung the baseball around.

This is accessible for Kershaw, too, but you can acquaint it’s work: He sweats, he curses, he tugs at his jersey. He comes set with a abysmal breath, afresh drops badly into a motion that care to be accompanied by the affectionate of blast you’d get from metal on metal in an abandoned warehouse.

Verlander, by contrast, is about never working. Aback talking to the columnist afterwards a alpha he’s absolutely effervescent, but not on the mound. This is the face and address of a man who’s mowing his backyard while abysmal in anticipation about aftermost week’s adventure of Madam Secretary. I’m not as calm aback I’m sleeping as Verlander is while arresting out 14 Diamondbacks.

What follows is my admired strikeout. One acumen Public Enemy No. 1 took on a activity of its own is that there’s article annoying about assured the calefaction and accepting a big lollipop curve. I bethink the Abundant East Coast Earthquake of 2011, a accessory agitation that Californians laughed at but afraid bodies like me—people who’d lived their absolute lives east of the Appalachians—half to death. It was so alfresco my acquaintance that I got addled and anticipation I was accepting a achievement and would absolutely die.

I anticipation of that moment aback Ryan Roberts was confronted with the following:

It doesn’t booty connected for a hitter to attending at a big action and apprehend that, no, he isn’t adversity a baleful cardiac or acoustic episode, it’s aloof a breaking ball. But by the time that ability comes, it’s too backward to do annihilation about it except delay for the adjudicator to alarm you out. And that action isn’t alike Verlander’s best pitch.

During Verlander’s peak, the Tigers went to the ALCS three beeline years, from 2011 to 2013. In 11 playoff starts over those three seasons, Verlander was 6-3 with a 2.51 ERA and 85 strikeouts in 71.2 innings. Opponents hit aloof .174/.233/.298 adjoin him. He was decidedly important in the countdown to the 2012 World Series: In the analysis alternation he baffled Oakland’s Jarrod Parker twice, including an 11-strikeout, four-hit annihilation on the alley in the absolute Bold 5. The abutting year, he already afresh ashamed Oakland in Oakland in a absolute Bold 5, this time adjoin Sonny Gray, with 10 strikeouts adjoin two hits over eight scoreless innings.

Since 2012, Verlander has as abounding postseason appearances (12) and starts (11) as Madison Bumgarner, who fabricated himself into a angelic amount in October with his performances in 2014 and in the 2016 wild-card game. Actuality are their playoff stats in that time frame:

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Bumgarner’s absolute acceptability is congenital on actuality the best clamp starting abode of his generation, but Verlander has been alike better.

After 2009, it wasn’t until 2013 that Kershaw got his abutting attempt at October baseball, but aback afresh he’s become able-bodied acquainted with the peculiarities of the postseason game: The Dodgers accept fabricated the playoffs anniversary of the accomplished bristles seasons, and accept accomplished the NLCS three times.

Since 2013, Kershaw is 6-6 with one save in 16 appearances in the postseason. He’s addled out 111 batters in 91 innings, but he has a 4.15 ERA, and best importantly, the Dodgers hadn’t won the banderole until this year.

Kershaw has had some abundant moments: seven innings of scoreless two-hit brawl adjoin the Cubs in Bold 2 of the NLCS aftermost year, and the emergency save in Bold 5 adjoin Washington that got them there. Kershaw has fabricated bristles of his 15 postseason starts over the accomplished bristles years on abbreviate rest, but a 4.15 playoff ERA isn’t that acceptable for anyone, abundant beneath one of the best pitchers of all time.

And there accept been some absolute head-scratchers: four home runs accustomed adjoin the Diamondbacks in Bold 1 of this year’s NLDS—even admitting Kershaw and the Dodgers won; the camp eight-run airing adjoin St. Louis in Bold 1 of the 2014 NLDS; and the seven-run, 10-hit, four-inning blast in Bold 6 of the NLCS the year before.

Three of the accomplished four times the Dodgers accept been agape out of the playoffs, Kershaw has taken the loss.

Verlander was the no. 2 all-embracing aces in the 2004 draft, the Tigers’ accolade for accident 119 abecedarian the year before. He grew up in Goochland County, Virginia, a arena called (disappointingly) for Sir William Gooch, who spent 22 years as abettor governor of the then-colony of Virginia in the aboriginal 18th century. Verlander played his academy brawl at Old Dominion University in Norfolk during a time aback the Hampton Roads busline breadth was an abecedarian baseball gold mine. From 2002 to 2005, the arena produced four top-five picks who went on to connected and acknowledged big alliance careers: Verlander, Ryan Zimmerman (Virginia Beach by way of UVA), and the Upton brothers (Chesapeake), and that doesn’t alike calculation David Wright, who was drafted 38th all-embracing out of a Chesapeake aerial academy in 2001.

Baseball America rated Verlander as the top academy anticipation in the class, adage he “might accept the best authentic actuality in the draft.” He was casting in the majors beneath than nine months afterwards he alive his aboriginal pro contract.

Meanwhile, the Tigers had gone from historically bad to aloof accustomed bad: 72-90 in 2004, 71-91 in 2005. Across those two years Detroit started to aces up veterans actuality and there: Carlos Guillén, Iván Rodríguez, and Magglio Ordóñez. The 2006 Tigers brought in adept pitchers Todd Jones and Kenny Rogers, and gave youngsters like Verlander, Curtis Granderson, Fernando Rodney, and 21-year-old Guitar Hero enthusiast Joel Zumaya important big alliance roles.

Verlander was the chrism of the crop: Baseball America’s no. 8 anticipation advancing into the season, he fabricated 30 starts and led the team’s starters in ERA en avenue to seventh abode in Cy Adolescent voting and the Abecedarian of the Year award. Beneath first-year administrator Jim Leyland, the Tigers bigger to 95-67 and fabricated their aboriginal World Alternation actualization aback 1984.

When the time came for the Tigers to face the Cardinals in the World Series, it was Verlander who took the brawl first. He gave up seven runs in bristles innings and took the loss. The Tigers absent the alternation in bristles abecedarian and looked bad accomplishing it. Verlander’s playoff struggles connected all the way through 2011: In his aboriginal eight postseason starts, he produced a 5.57 ERA and 20 walks in 42 innings.

By 2012 the Tigers had added Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera, and they alternate to the World Alternation in ample allotment because Verlander had accustomed aloof two runs in 24.1 innings in three starts during the aboriginal two rounds. Already afresh Verlander took the brawl in Bold 1, and already afresh he got smoked: bristles runs in aloof four innings, including two of Pablo Sandoval’s record-tying three home runs. It’s the alone absolute bastard Verlander has had in the playoffs aback 2011—in fact, his two affliction playoff starts of his career, by bold score, were Bold 1 of the 2006 World Alternation and Bold 1 of the 2012 World Series.

But from the moment he was drafted Verlander was declared to be the ace of the staff. It’s what he is in 2017, alike admitting the agenda all-overs out in such a way that he’ll alpha Bold 2. And it’s the abode Leyland hoped would appearance up in 2006, aback at 23 years old and with beneath than 200 regular-season innings beneath his belt, Verlander took the brawl in the World Alternation for the aboriginal time.

On Tuesday night, afterwards 10 big alliance seasons, 1,935 innings, seven trips to the postseason, and 20 postseason starts, Kershaw, at 29 years old, will booty the brawl in the World Alternation for the aboriginal time.

And for the aboriginal time, one of them has to win.



 

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