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It was backward afternoon on Cyber Monday and the band at the Starbucks bistro abreast Times Square continued center to the door.

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Further flush on the Upper East Side,Chipotle Mexican Grill ( CMG ) was additionally accouterment to a arranged house.

It's a assurance of the times.Starbucks ( SBUX ) and Chipotle accept kept their profits fat and cartage advantageous through the best contempo quarter, alike as abounding eateries stumbled amidst the arduous customer spending environment.

Coffee baron Starbucks has now racked up double-digit accumulation and sales advance the accomplished eight quarters.

Fast-casual beanery Chipotle has done so in all but one division over that time frame. Accession top performer,Buffalo Wild Wings ( BWLD ), has served up agreeable profits in all but one of the accomplished four quarters.

All three chains allotment a compound for success: a able amount and aliment affection about to their peers, and well-differentiated concepts. Their able achievement comes at a time back abounding consumers, decidedly the low- and middle-income crowd, are scrimping on dining -- arch to apathetic times for abounding players.

Across the restaurant industry, same-store sales were "relatively bloodless through this accomplished summer and fall, with abounding of the beyond boilerplate brands adverse almost bloodless operating trends," says Wunderlich Securities analyst Bob Derrington.

The canicule of the boilerplate restaurant brands advantageous ascendant shares of customer spending arise to be a affair of the contempo past, Derrington says.

"The era of restaurant industry specialization appears to be aloft us," he said. "Old-school, jack-of-all-trades fast aliment and accidental dining chains -- the Olive Gardens and Red Lobsters -- are beneath advance by brands specializing in a differentiated experience, with added craveable and alluringly priced card offerings."

He credibility to Chipotle with its "food with integrity" theme, and Buffalo Wild Wings' "maniacal 'Wings. Beers. Sports.' focus."

Viva La Difference

"In contempo months these specialists accept enjoyed about better-than-industry cartage growth, and abide to appropriate on abounding of the older, added boilerplate brands," Derrington said. "In turn, abounding of those older, bounden brands accept been affected to about-face to advancing deals and amount as a 'consumer carrot' at mealtime, ultimately axis dinnertime into 'Let's accomplish a deal'-time for abounding consumers," he said.

Industry advance is accepted to apathetic from aftermost year, says Darren Tristano, controlling carnality admiral at industry adviser Technomic. He forecasts restaurant and confined will see a 3% acceleration in retail sales this year to $464.3 billion. That compares with about a 5% accretion in 2012.

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In the after-effects of the recession, consumers accept abstruse how to save money, absorb beneath and attending for value, Tristano says.

"In response, the above brands accept been blame amount and discounting," he said, authoritative it difficult to accession prices and get consumers to acknowledgment to spending at college levels."

He expects fast-casual eateries, the class including Chipotle,Panera Bread ( PNRA ) andNoodles & Co. ( NDLS ), to abound sales in the 10% breadth this year, "driven heavily" by new restaurants opened aftermost year and set to accessible this year. Fast-casual eateries action fresh, high-quality food. They are pricier than fast-food chains, but action better-quality dining experiences.

The industry has apparent alloyed after-effects in contempo months. But overall, the eateries that are accomplishing "relatively well" are those that are a "relative value," with a low boilerplate analysis price, adds Wedbush Securities analyst Nick Setyan.

"The quick-casual class is benefiting from consumers trading bottomward from accidental dining restaurants because it provides the aforementioned affection of aliment at added reasonable prices and added efficiently," he said.

And the bite category, which includes chains like Starbucks andKrispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD), is the "most affordable of the arbitrary spend," with an boilerplate analysis of amidst $3 and $4, he adds.

But the industry's top performers are whetting customer appetites with added than low prices.

Wing Me, Beer Me, Serve Me

Take Starbucks. The Seattle-based coffee behemothic acquaint a 37% acceleration in Q4 EPS. Thomson Reuters analysts apprehend a 21% acceleration in Q1.

"The absolute disciplinarian for Starbucks continues to be their adeptness to ability out to barter in avant-garde means and to bulldoze them to acknowledgment to do added and added business," said Setyan.

That includes its adherence affairs and marketing. Amidst efforts on the technology avant-garde is a beta analysis of "Tweet-a-coffee," which is a way to accelerate an $5 Starbucks Card eGift to Twitter accompany and followers in the U.S.

Starbucks is aberration out on a cardinal of fronts. In October, it opened the Teavana tea bar, which offers tea drinks, salads and items, on Manhattan's Upper East Side. Starbucks bought Teavana aftermost year and is transforming it from a banker of tea and accompanying items into cafe-style tea bars.

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Starbucks in August additionally began affairs its Evolution Beginning abstract atWhole Foods Bazaar (WFM).

Chipotle Mexican Grill edge Wall Street's appetence with Q3 sales that exhausted angle and a 17% EPS gain. However, college aliment costs kept profits bacteria than expected.

Still, sales topped forecasts. The banal acicular 16% Oct. 18, but had avant-garde alone accession 2% by Friday. Analysts see Q4 EPS aggressive 29%.

One Chipotle backbone is an boilerplate admission abreast $9.50, said Miller Tabak & Co. analyst Stephen Anderson. "They've been accepting bazaar allotment adjoin some rivals."

He said Chipotle acquired allotment in Chicago as a aftereffect of contempo closings of 65 locales by adversary Qdoba Mexican Grill, endemic byJack in the Box (JACK).

Chipotle additionally launched a accouterment account in Denver in January that has back been formed out to added markets. Administration said the account represented 1% of acquirement in the aliment through which it is offered so far.

In an October report, Anderson wrote that Chipotle will be amidst the aboriginal beneficiaries of abatement year-over-year article prices. By the third division of 2014, he expects Chipotle to see "lower year-over-year costs on dairy and abiding year-over-year costs on craven and pork (which we anticipate will added than account college year-over year beef costs)."

Buffalo Wild Wings racked up a able 67% EPS accretion in Q3, its additional double-digit acceleration back an 11% abatement in Q1. Analysts see a 19% acceleration in Q4 EPS.

In a mid-November report, Derrington wrote that Buffalo Wild Wings should cap the year with able assets as it allowances from falling chicken-wing prices and added contempo initiatives. Spot-market prices for jumbo-cut craven wings accept been in a "free fall" in contempo weeks, afresh bottomward to $1.18 a batter from $1.43 on Oct. 29 and bottomward 36% from $1.88 aftermost year, Derrington wrote in a address appear Friday.

Buffalo Wild Wings already served up agreeable third-quarter after-effects in backward October. With accepted fourth-quarter aforementioned abundance sales off to a "strong start" -- up 5.3% vs. a year ago in October -- and atom accession prices "drifting unseasonably lower," Derrington aloft his fourth-quarter balance appraisal by 5 cents to $1.06 a allotment and his full-year appraisal additionally by 5 cents to $3.75 a share, both in band with Wall Street.

"To both advance and differentiate its account and abound sales," the aggregation is testing a book belvedere for consumers to abode orders, comedy amateur and pay their bill, Derrington wrote. The tablets, he adds, will accommodate "Wing Me, Beer Me, and Serve Me" buttons that let barter rapidly adjustment above-mentioned selections. The tablets are accepted to be in 100 locations by anniversary and system-wide by the end of 2014.

He says Buffalo Wild is "poised to abide to outperform" best of its casual-dining industry peers.

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Through The Doughnut Hole

Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, which logged a 33% balance accretion in Q3, aghast investors admitting the nice increase. Its shares plunged in the deathwatch of the after-effects acquaint Dec. 2.

The problem? Comparative abundance sales at company-owned locations rose alone 3.7%, "far beneath sell-side expectations of 6.3% and alike further beneath buy-side buzz numbers that were as aerial as 10%," said Setyan.

In addition, administration aloft the low end of this year's EPS advice by 1 cent -- afresh beneath expectations.

The angle for the industry is accepting brighter.

"We accept affidavit to be optimistic about a backlash in restaurant spending in the abutting few quarters," wrote Anderson in a report. He singled out forecasts for abstinent job advance in the abutting six to 12 months, "which in our appearance has the arch absolute alternation to the bloom of the restaurant sector."

He additionally sees "commodity amount comparisons" continuing to get easier. Atom prices on meat and aliment capacity accept collapsed 20%-40% back the end of 2012 and about 30%-50% back the drought-induced peaks of July 2012.

He now sees "overall aliment amount inflation" for 2013 to be in the 1%-2% range, beneath the 1.5%-2.5% aliment amount aggrandizement he had modeled previously.

"In 2014, the accomplishments of hardly added hopeful customer spending, abatement restaurant industry same-store sales and a added adorable article amount ambiance is alms some application of sunshine for industry sales and balance against the actual difficult trends of 2013," adds Derrington.

Bonnie Riggs, restaurant industry analyst for the NPD Group, expects a 1% access in cartage and a 3% access in industry sales in 2014 amidst a "little better" economy. That compares with the collapsed cartage advance and a 2% access in sales she expects for 2013.

The angle and opinions bidding herein are the angle and opinions of the columnist and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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