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In the Senate, a harried accessible accomplishment to bang through potentially hundreds of amendments to acquire their tax angle in committee.

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Should GOP leaders achieve their goals in both accommodation over the abutting bristles days, this could be alleged the best acknowledged aldermanic anniversary in President Donald Trump's tenure.

Should either of these efforts go off the rails, well, time to basic the allocution of a accessible bloom affliction 2.0.

According to several chief GOP aides and rank-and-file assembly CNN batten with on Sunday, House Republicans are entering this anniversary in a acceptable place. Rounds of aboriginal check-ins with appointment associates throughout the weekend yielded absolute results, two sources said.

"We ample we'd arch into this anniversary defective some advice to get this above the line," one abettor told CNN. "As of now, it looks like we adeptness not. But four canicule is a continued time."

Back is the vote:

As of now, leaders plan to put this bill on the attic Thursday. That is accountable to change.

Whom to watch: California Republican House associates

Leaders apperceive anywhere amid bristles and seven New York assembly are "no" or "leaning no." A scattering of New Jersey assembly are appropriate there with them.

The affair isn't new -- the fractional abolition of the accompaniment and bounded tax deduction, which disproportionately hits their high-tax states. But leaders can survive losses in those two states.

It's the California appointment anybody needs to accumulate their eyes on this week. They ashore with Republicans, abundantly out of adherence to majority baton (and adolescent Californian) Kevin McCarthy. But several GOP districts in California -- represented by some of the best endangered GOP assembly in the appointment -- appear from districts that would additionally be hit adamantine by this repeal.

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Publicly, besides Rep. Darrell Issa, who is already a "no," the accompaniment appointment has abundantly captivated its fire. If they can be captivated in the "yes" column, the bill should acquire a bright path. If those assembly (think bodies like Reps. Ed Royce or Mimi Walters) bail, again Republicans acquire a absolute problem.

The payoff:

Rep. Tom MacArthur, a New Jersey Republican, accurate cogent apropos about aboriginal iterations of the bill, yet aback came about aboriginal aftermost anniversary on the breadth that the abolition of the another minimum tax meant the SALT abolition wouldn't abuse his commune as abundant as he aboriginal suspected. That fabricated him a "yes." And voila, Ivanka Trump and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin will be in his commune Monday morning for a tax event.

And yet:

As of this moment, based on the approved check-ins from the GOP whip team, leaders feel like they are still accomplishing able-bodied with their California members. The behind-the-scenes advertise has been accelerated -- district-by-district polling from the White House political operation and the Republican National Lath has been provided to lawmakers. They acquire been accustomed bread-and-butter assay for anniversary of their districts assuming that, on net, their capacity will account all-embracing in the near-term.

The key is, and has consistently been, the adeptness to argue rank-and-file associates that the plan in its absoluteness is added admired than any one coveted provision. This anniversary will assuredly appearance whether the absolute acknowledgment leaders acquire gotten appropriately far can hold, or whether those coveted accoutrement -- and the interests and political pressures abaft them -- can assuredly booty authority and account problems.

If things alpha to go south:

House GOP leaders are ready. They've advisedly larboard accessible the achievability that House Means and Means Chairman Kevin Brady would acquaint absolute changes to the bill back it alcove the Rules Lath on Wednesday. At this point, it appears they may not be necessary. But if that changes, the aperture is accessible to abode alone concerns/buy off those on the sidelines.

How this will work:

The GOP whip aggregation has been accomplishing connected checks on the rank and book in contempo days, but tonight will be the aboriginal "hard whip" accomplishment back assembly acknowledgment to Washington. This will be a actual important moment -- they'll acquisition they are either on a acceptable aisle or acquire assignment to do. And that will behest the abutting few days.

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The bedraggled secret:

"Our guys can breathe a bit," was how one abettor put it. The aforementioned abettor acclaimed that back it comes bottomward to it, they'll charge the President to advertise the bill to the public.

But for the moment?

"Why blend with article that's working?"

Above the Capitol:

How the Senate bill was received:

There's no catechism changes will be fabricated -- Senate accounts GOP agents accede the bill, as it currently stands, violates the Byrd Rule back it comes to abacus to the arrears alfresco of the aboriginal decade. That, of course, would beggarly Republicans couldn't canyon the bill in the Senate with a simple majority. Agents apprenticed that would be anchored during the lath process.

Along those lines, Sen. Ted Cruz has accurate affair about the abounding abolition of the SALT deduction, forth with apropos that while the bill reduces taxes, on average, in every assets group, millions would still see their taxes go up. Sens. Marco Rubio and Mike Lee appetite the Child Tax Credit, additional to $1,650 and accommodation broadcast in the Senate proposal, additional to afterpiece to $2,000. Sens. Jeff Flake and Bob Corker still acquire apropos about the bill's affect on the deficit.

BUT: there is no absolute opposition. No Republican is alliance to argue the admeasurement out of the gate. No affair factions are captivation out on specific items that would accomplish the bill a non-starter for others. Does this acquire a bright aisle forward? Hardly. Chief GOP aides apprehend problems to appear and acquire several associates are aloof captivation their blaze for the moment. But man, oh man, is this a altered acquaintance for GOP leaders than bloom care.

What to watch in the Senate accounts committee:

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Keep an eye on any amendments offered by Accounts Lath Chairman Orrin Hatch of Utah. His amendments, like Brady's in the House, will be the best absolute and advised absolutely to adamant out Byrd Rule problems, forth with the political and action problems in their conference.

As for the Democrats

As in the House, the alteration account acquaint by Senate accounts appears to accomplish bright that Senate Democrats will be alms amendments mainly to accomplish Republicans booty difficult votes. Anybody is still befitting a abutting eye on politically accessible 2018 Democrats like Joe Donnelly, Heidi Heitkamp and Joe Manchin to see if they appearance any alertness to get on lath with the GOP plan. Republican leaders aren't counting on that, but if any or all of those assembly accessible the aperture to changes that could get them on board, aides accomplish bright Republicans will jump at the chance. A bipartisan bill, no amount by how abbreviate a margin, absolutely is a bigger advertise than a accessory version.

Also, accumulate an eye on this:

As CNN has appear several times, GOP leaders appetite no allotment of abacus in a abolition of Obamacare's alone authorization into this process. They are still bleeding from the barbarous bloom affliction abortion and are abashed that abacus in article that the Congressional Account Office says would advance to millions beneath accepting bloom insurance.

And bookmark this, too:

One breadth that could actualize aloft problems in the House is, well, the Senate. That's absolutely why you saw House Speaker Paul Ryan absolutely accomplish to the bill activity to appointment backward aftermost week. And that's why you saw Brady absolutely say that the House wouldn't acquire annihilation beneath than the SALT accommodation (keep the acreage tax deduction, capped at $10,000) they formed out with their members.

Nothing will actualize bigger problems, faster, than chat activity about that the House is activity to be affected to eat whatever the Senate ends up with. House leaders are activity aloft and above to say that won't happen. (Sidenote: they said the aforementioned affair on the budget. The House concluded up bistro the Senate version.)

And finally, are Republicans on clue to accommodated their deadline?

Yes. The House has consistently been appointed to canyon their bill this week, the Senate the anniversary afterwards Thanksgiving. Again conference. At this moment, they are still on that schedule. Yes, things could change quickly.

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