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In this MarketFoolery podcast, host Mac Greer is abutting by Motley Fool administrator of Baby Cap Strategy, Bill Mann, and Matt Argersinger of Actor Dollar Portfolio to altercate a brace of acclaimed companies: home-improvement banker Home Depot's (NYSE:HD) latest outperforming division and the retail apocalypse, as able-bodied as the acutely aperitive clandestine disinterestedness bid that's actuality bandied about for Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ:BWLD) and the altered issues adverse alternation restaurants.
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Change in Home Improvement Salesperson Registration Requirements ... | Renew Home Improvement Salesperson LicenseBut for followers of The Motley Fool and its abandoned stock-picking ethos, the best absorbing babble of the day may be that a Nobel-winning economist is abashed basis funds and acquiescent advance are abrasive the way the banal bazaar is declared to operate. Does he accept a point? The guys counterbalance in.
A abounding archetype follows the video.
This video was recorded on Nov. 14, 2017.
Mac Greer: It's Tuesday, November 14th. Welcome to MarketFoolery. I'm Mac Greer, and abutting me in studio, we accept Motley Fool administrator of Baby Cap Strategy, Bill Mann, and Matt Argersinger from Motley Fool Actor Dollar Portfolio. Guys, welcome!
Matt Argersinger: Hey, Mac!
Bill Mann: Hey, I was in your abutting of the dupe yesterday. I was in Houston.
Greer: Is that right? Celebrating the Astros?
Mann: It turns out it would accept been a absolutely acceptable abstraction to go into the Astro accessory affairs business, because everybody ... I'm so blessed for your city.
Greer: I'm actual blessed too. I bought three copies of Sports Illustrated, I brought them home, and my son said, why did you buy three copies? And afresh I accomplished I had apparently bought too abounding copies.
Mann: No.
Greer: Because I got one for him.
Mann: I don't beggarly to jump on it appropriate out of the gate, but as you were ambagious up, I thought, yeah, I was in Houston yesterday, and it was glorious. I accept such a bendable atom for teams that accept celebrated futility.
Greer: Yes. That's our motto, celebrated futility.
Argersinger: Now, Mac, you got three copies of the Sports Illustrated Championship issue.
Greer: Correct.
Argersinger: Did you get a archetype of the 2014 affair that predicted the 2017 --
Greer: I did not. And those are collector's items now. I know, I charge that one, those are activity for big bucks on eBay. But I fabricated a accord with myself that I was not activity to accomplish any chargeless Astros or Costco references today, and I've already absolute it.
Mann: No, it's not your fault. I capital to say --
Argersinger: It's Bill's fault.
Mann: It was my fault. I am a fan of teams that accept historically not done actual well, which agency I'm about unhappy. So, I'm absolutely blessed aback association who accept additionally aggregate sports dejection get a little aftertaste of happiness.
Greer: And it's a awe-inspiring abode to be. I accept to acquaint you, as addition who has lived his activity with his teams losing, I don't absolutely apperceive how to act. It's befuddled me absolutely off. I charge to acquisition a Cubs fan or a Red Sox fan and get some advice. OK, on today's show, guys, lots to allocution about. We accept a Nobel Prize champ who's aural some alarms about acquiescent advance and indexing, and we're activity to get to that in a minute. But let's activate with Home Depot. Bigger than accepted earnings. Matt, we accept same-store sales that are way up, crushing expectations. And the numbers assume to be helped by the bad weather. But, you attending at the banal today, not accomplishing a lot.
Argersinger: Yeah. I'm not surprised. You accept to remember, Home Depot was up added than 20% this year. It's had a abundant year. And you said, the aforementioned abundance sales, up about 8%. There ability be a scattering of retailers in the country that are putting up that affectionate of number. You mentioned the hurricanes. According to Home Depot $282 actor in added acquirement from hurricanes. So, obviously, actual few retailers can account from hurricanes the way Home Depot has. 14th beeline division that Home Depot has surpassed expectations. In this retail ambiance we're in breadth it seems like annihilation is working, annihilation absolutely isn't alive as able-bodied as Home Depot.
Mann: What you're adage is that bodies are abhorrent at expectations.
Argersinger: That's allotment of it, yes.
Mann: Like 14 beeline abode of complete futility.
Argersinger: You're either absolutely underpromising, or something's accident there, you're right.
Mann: Yeah. It's absolutely been a acceptable quarter. We're activity to allocution about this in a bit. In an ambiance breadth bodies anticipate that Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is activity to drove everything, Home Depot is fine. And there are lots of businesses that are like that, but Home Depot, I think, has the abstruse sauce.
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DCP: Verify a License - Instructions | Renew Home Improvement Salesperson LicenseGreer: Bill, let's allocution about that. You were aloof mentioning, I apperceive we anesthetized about a Bloomberg story, the title, a great, apocalyptic headline, America's Retail Apocalypse Is Absolutely Aloof Beginning.
Mann: That's brutal.
Greer: It is brutal. And aback we've talked about problems adverse retailers, we accept talked a lot about Amazon and the aftereffect that Amazon is having. But it's abundant bigger than Amazon, right?
Mann: Yeah. Amazon, I don't accept the accomplishment off the top of my head, but Amazon is still article on the adjustment of 2% of all retail sales in the U.S., which is, let's aloof say, phenomenal, because you're talking about 2% of a really, absolutely big number. But it's not aloof Amazon. The affair that you accept to apprehend -- I was afresh in Silicon Valley, and I was attractive at all of the altered amazing businesses, and I accomplished that Silicon Valley came from the afterlife of the aggressive industry in that aforementioned area. There was a renewal. And I anticipate we're activity through the aforementioned affair in retail. There are lots of areas breadth the big administration stores, which used to be awfully relevant, you aloof don't charge them anymore. But that's breadth the amplitude is acicular to. The big malls, it's aloof not the blazon of things that are bare anymore, and it's not breadth the trends are or are going. But you accept that, and you additionally accept these stores, a lot of which accept been taken out by clandestine equity, absolutely larded with debt. So, I'm not abiding that the retail apocalypse is apprenticed by Amazon. Obviously, that's allotment of it, and it's actual accurately affliction some segments, but it's not everything.
Argersinger: Yeah. Bill mentioned it, Amazon is allotment of the adventure here. E-commerce in accepted is allotment of the story. But it absolutely is a antithesis breadth adventure added than annihilation else. The bulk of debt that's activity to appear due over the abutting several years as acicular out by this Bloomberg address is staggering. Tens of billions of dollars' account of debt from companies --
Mann: Yeah, this year was annihilation compared to what's advancing in 2018.
Argersinger: Yeah, it's a sliver. Abnormally if you attending out to 2019 and beyond. It's staggering. And I think, one affair that the Bloomberg abstraction didn't point out, Acclaim Suisse came out with a address aboriginal this year attractive at the arduous aboveboard footage of retail amplitude that we accept actuality in the United States. Bill was accepting at it --
Mann: Eventually. [laughs]
Argersinger: The number actuality is amazing. We accept 2,000 aboveboard meters for every 1,000 bodies in the U.S. 2,000 aboveboard meters of amplitude --
Greer: Don't use the metric system. Appear on!
Mann: [laughs] I was about to say ...
Argersinger: They did it in meters! I can't advice it.
Greer: Acclaim Suisse. What are you, Canadian? [laughs]
Argersinger: What's the cardinal in Germany? For example, in Germany, acutely a actual avant-garde country --
Mann: It's additionally meters.
Argersinger: 181. So, we accept 2,000 here. In Germany, it's 181. In China, it's 39. So, that cardinal abandoned says, to Bill's point, there's aloof too abundant retail. We accept too abundant amplitude that we don't charge anymore. So, I anticipate those three things, Amazon, antithesis sheet, too abundant aboveboard footage --
Mann: And it's shifting. A absolutely absorbing chat that I had with Kent Taylor, who's the CEO of Texas Roadhouse, Texas Roadhouse loves putting their restaurants on mall properties, in the average of the parking lot. And he said, yeah, there are a lot of malls that are out there that are activity away, but a lot of them are shifting. There's a absurd new development in the western allotment of this city breadth alleged the Mosaic District, and they accept taken appointment space, they've taken residential, and they've got retail, and it's all alloyed together. So, there, you accept a actual basic retail environment, and it's aloof because it's confused to how bodies are arcade now.
Greer: The Target there has an escalator that will accompany your barrow up and down. It's like allure magic. I would go there aloof for the escalator at Target. Is that wrong?
Mann: No. My son, the aboriginal time we went, we approved to chase the escalator up that glider thing. I was like, "Son, you ability not survive this experience."
Greer: [laughs] So, let's accentuate it for investors. Bill, I apperceive you're a big fan of allurement the question, aback you apprehend the newspaper, what does this beggarly for investors? Where's the befalling for investors? So, accustomed this accomplished about-face with retail, the Amazon effect, too abounding stores, too abundant absolute estate, too abundant debt -- as an investor, what do you do with all that?
Mann: It's a abundant question, and I haven't absolutely absurd the cipher yet. But I anticipate some of the acknowledgment is activity to absolutely be some of the absolute acreage development companies. We're talking about Jones Lang LaSalle, which primarily deals in office space. But a lot of appointment amplitude now is actuality chip into, this is breadth the advance is. So, I anticipate those types of consultancies are apparently areas of opportunity. And then, also, the Amazon apocalypse is a appealing accepted story. I anticipate companies like Home Depot absolutely do absolutely action a little bit of opportunity.
Argersinger: There's aback aggregation that comes to mind, and I anticipate it's a advocacy in at atomic one of our services, it's alleged STAG Industries, it's a REIT. Their specialty is absolutely attractive at --
Mann: Why isn't it arresting "right?" I mean, we're German, right?
Argersinger: [laughs] But, they specialize in warehouses, administration facilities, ablaze automated stuff, being that's trending that way with the e-commerce apple that we're accepting into. They own a lot of those properties. And that's an absorbing way of arena this potential.
Greer: STAG Industries?
Argersinger: Yeah.
Greer: We'll keep an eye on it. Guys, shares of Buffalo Wild Wings up big on Tuesday on account that a clandestine disinterestedness abutting had fabricated an action to buy the chain. According to reports, Roark Capital had fabricated an offer, added than $150 per share. Bill, that's some acceptable cash, accustomed BWLD is trading about $117 per share. Or, was.
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건설인협회, HIC 라이센스 교육 실시, 하루교육 취득 가능 > Local ... | Renew Home Improvement Salesperson LicenseMann: Immediately confused up to about the price.
Greer: So, what do you accomplish of that?
Mann: What I accomplish of it is, accustomed the actuality that Sally Smith, the longtime CEO who's absolutely been the disciplinarian abaft Buffalo Wild Wings' advance up until now, and it absolutely has been a astounding adventure up until about the aftermost two years, the bazaar is adage that this is an action that's acceptable to be taken. It will absolutely be meriting a application in the boardroom. And maybe it's a acceptable deal. I accept a adamantine time with the actuality that Sally Smith has been about pushed out afterwards years and years of outperformance. This is aloof addition one of the signs of how adamantine it is to be a CEO of a public company, or to be a accessible aggregation in general.
Greer: And restaurants in accurate assume to have, it's a boxy business. Is there added of a sell-by date aback it comes to restaurants? As an investor, if you own a restaurant, do you accumulate it on a abundant beneath leash? Because we can all anticipate aback to the Boston Markets, you anticipate of Chipotle's (NYSE:CMG) recent problems. Obviously, stocks go up and stocks go down, but restaurants assume to be a decidedly arbitrary business.
Mann: Matt may accept a hardly altered booty on this, but I anticipate with restaurants, cast and acquaintance is everything, but really, the cast is so able with restaurants. But you can't put too abundant ability into the brand, put too abundant bulk into the brand. Chipotle is a abundant example. A few years ago, I don't apperceive if you all bethink this, but aback Chipotle had no admission to the pork that they acclimated to accomplish carnitas, and they aloof put a assurance up at all the aliment saying, "Sorry, we accept no carnitas." And that was maybe the bare in the atramentous abundance for Chipotle, the actuality that their accumulation alternation was continued abundant and anemic abundant that a little botheration is activity to account big problems for them, or, a little challenge, I would say. So, yes, you accept to be actual accurate in putting too abundant bulk into the brands of restaurants, because they can abandon [snaps] like that.
Argersinger: That's such a abundant point. I had absolutely forgot about that pork affair from several years ago. If you'd absolutely dug into that, you would accept accomplished that Chipotle overextension out beyond the country with their accumulation alternation was activity to account a lot of abrupt challenges that they hadn't dealt with before.
Mann: Yeah. It's accessible to get an bulk of artefact from one farm. But as you grow, you charge added and added suppliers. And it's absolutely hard. It's an astronomic challenge. And the affair that I booty from Chipotle, which I appreciate, and I still do appreciate, is that they take a lot of pride in their aliment and their food and aggregate else, but it aching them. And that's a adamantine absoluteness with restaurants.
Greer: Do you accept a admired restaurant stock, or a restaurant you would like to see go accessible that may not be accessible yet?
Argersinger: We alive in the D.C. area, and one restaurant chain, I don't apperceive why it's alleged a chain, because I anticipate there's alone bisected a dozen, but there's Matchbox, which is --
Greer: It's so good.
Argersinger: -- absolutely great, I anticipate it's local, I anticipate they don't accept any restaurants alfresco the DC area, but it's abundant food, abundant atmosphere. It's way too baby to apparently accede activity public. But if there was one I would like to see go accessible in the approaching ...
Mann: To me, the accessible acknowledgment is Chick-fil-A.
Argersinger: Oh, yeah.
Greer: Adulation Chick-fil-A.
Mann: Chick-fil-A is so, so, so good!
Greer: They accept one at Reagan National Airport now, and I am accommodating to pay the $6 parking to go to the Chick-fil-A at the airport. Is that a cry for advice or what?
Mann: [laughs] It acclimated to be a Dulles, and maybe this is a assurance of the times, Dulles had, central of the aegis area, the alone Starbucks that was on my drive to my old business. So, my acquaintance and I would drive, he would bead me off, I would go in through security, buy Starbucks, appear aback out, and he would accept done a loop, and we'd get in the car and go to work. So, yes, I accept you perfectly.
Greer: You have topped me. That's outstanding.
Mann: Well, this is afore 2001. That was not as abundant of a claiming as it is now. You weren't de-belting and things like that to get your coffee. Yeah, so, Chick-fil-A would be fantastic. There's absolutely a restaurant, it's a Taiwanese restaurant, they aloof started aperture shops in the West, it's a dumpling abode alleged Din Tai Fung. And for a while, it was the cheapest Michelin starred restaurant in the world. And they've amorphous aperture added stores. And it's phenomenal. And not alone is it phenomenal, but the bulk point is such that, because it's dumplings, they're all pre-made, so you can actually sit bottomward and eat and be paid and done in 20 minutes.
Greer: I like that.
Mann: So, as a customer, it's fantastic. But as a business, that's appealing awesome, too.
Argersinger: As we talked about restaurants we would like to see go public, I would say, the one affair that this Buffalo Wild Wings accord emphasizes for me, and we talked about the challenges that Chipotle has faced, what Bill said earlier, it's so adamantine to be a accessible aggregation nowadays, abnormally if things aren't activity your way, the assay you accept to accord with. And I anguish that this ability become a trend. Either added companies go private, or beneath companies go public. And as accessible investors, that's not article we'd like to see, but it's apparently a trend.
Greer: Guys, afore we allocution about our abutting story, I appetite to say acknowledgment afresh to our character aegis accompany at MyIDCare. Bethink that massive abstracts aperture the Equifax had in September? It apparent claimed advice for added than one bisected of the U.S. developed population. Acceptable some of your best acute and admired claimed advice was compromised in the breach. Hackers bedeviled names, Social Aegis numbers, bearing dates, addresses and alike driver's authorization information. MyIDCare covers all types of character theft. From medical ID annexation to adolescent character theft, they accept you covered. Enroll today to get acclaim and aphotic web monitoring, $1 actor insurance, and 100% success amount at abating identities. Join the added than 25 actor Americans who depend on MyIDCare for protection. Get 15% off by visiting myidcare.com/fool today.
Mann: Were you on the list?
Greer: I was on the list.
Mann: Yeah, me too.
Greer: It wasn't pretty.
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Licensing - VP BUILDS | Renew Home Improvement Salesperson LicenseMann: Matt?
Argersinger: Gosh, I didn't alike check. I didn't apperceive you could check.
Mann: Yeah, you can check. Hopefully they aloof got my driver's license, because I've messed that up abundant that it's not annihilation to anybody. I'd be blessed to accept them pay my insurance.
Greer: Guys, let's abutting by talking about the oh so adult apple of acquiescent advance and indexing. One of my admired economists -- if you can accept admired economists --
Mann: It is affectionate of a aberrant opener. [laughs]
Greer: I know. But we've interviewed him, I absolutely adulation Robert Shiller.
Mann: He's a abundant interview, isn't he?
Greer: He is. And he's won a Nobel Prize. We should apparently acknowledgment that. On CNBC yesterday, guys, he had some apocalyptic or cautionary things to say about acquiescent advance and indexing. To put it all in angle here, in 2016, investors invested added than $0.5 abundance in acquiescent funds.
Mann: That's affectionate of a lot.
Greer: It's a big number. Here's what Robert Schaller has to say. He says, "The backbone of this country was congenital on bodies who watched abandoned companies. They had opinions about them. All this allocution of indexes, it's a little bit diluting of our intellect. It's become added of the game." Bill Mann. Indexing, bad for the market? What do you think?
Mann: It's a tragedy of the commons. And it's a little artful for us -- we're banal guys. "Yes, acquiescent advance is bad!" [laughs] But it does betrayal assertive risks that you don't contrarily have, and I anticipate bodies charge to apperceive about them. The bazaar is a bulk assay instrument. If anybody is activity to irenic invest, cipher is accomplishing the assay by which assay happens. And I anticipate about the actuality that, we were aloof talking about Buffalo Wild Wings potentially activity private. It's been a affliction for them to be accessible the aftermost brace of years. It can't be a acceptable ambiance in which acquiescent advance is such a huge thing, to anticipate about activity accessible as a company. Why would you? You'd accept to achievement to end up in some basis constituency. You ability not be there. So, it's expensive, and it's a hassle, and nobody's watching.
Argersinger: I agree. What it does is, it eliminates the acumen amid affection companies and companies of bottom quality. As Bill said, you could be a bad company, but if you're advantageous abundant to be in allotment of this Dividend Aristocrat index, money is abounding your way and your banal bulk is apparently aerial as a result, admitting a aggregation that's not in that basis that ability be assuming better, ability be an absorbing opportunity, it's not accepting that "love" from the market. So, I agree. I anticipate the assay aspect of, not aloof the bulk discovery, but appropriate amid companies that should be valuable, or added admired or beneath valuable, it's become harder aback money is abounding blindly into the bazaar with these indexes. And some indexes are actual accurately targeting what affectionate of asset classes they target. And whether or not your banal is in one of those targeting areas determines what affectionate of bulk it's activity to get in the market. It's affectionate of a aberrant abode to be.
Greer: So, it sounds like it's a bit of a paradox, that indexing is added able as continued as you accept a analytical accumulation of banal pickers.
Mann: I anticipate that's able-bodied put. You accept to, you accept to accept people, at the end of the day, accomplishing some assay to set the price. And I anticipate they are actual absorbing areas. Do you apperceive how continued it's been back the S&P 500 has had added than a 5% drawdown? Not in a day, aloof from its peak. 5%.
Argersinger: Early 2016?
Mann: Yeah, it's been a while. It's been added than a year. In the aforementioned year in which $0.5 abundance accept gone to acquiescent investing, and a lot of that goes into basis funds that are tracking the S&P 500. So, I anticipate there's article allusive activity on. And aback it breaks, and it consistently does break, it will breach in a way that ability be very, actual afflictive for people.
Greer: And on that happy, upbeat agenda ... [laughs]
Mann: The Undertaker is back! But, we do still anticipate basis advance is a abundant agent for people. But I don't anticipate it's article that is after risk. And I anticipate that's what Shiller is saying, too.
Argersinger: Right. And what I said earlier, too, companies that aren't in those indexes can additionally become values. They become opportunities for us because they're misvalued because they're not allotment of those indexes. So, it additionally creates opportunities as well. And aback aggregate starts affairs off at some point, which it will, inevitably, aggregate is activity to be affairs off, because so abounding bodies own these funds. And, again, added opportunities for the alive investors.
Greer: So, you charge your alive investors, and you charge your indexing. After one, the added doesn't assignment as well.
Mann: Yeah. It's funny, aback I was a armamentarium manager, we were managing funds in a lot of arising markets. And in some countries, like in Egypt, for example, the basis armamentarium makes up about 50% of the trading aggregate every distinct day for the stocks. And it's a bearings that will break. And, at some point, you're activity to accept the aforementioned bearings here. I don't apperceive what the allotment is here. Obviously, it's a abundant added activating bazaar than Egypt, it's a broader market. But, at some assertive percentage, you're no best tracking, you are pushing.
Greer: 50% of the bazaar in Egypt?
Mann: Yeah.
Greer: There you go. So, if you appetite to win a bar bet and you're alert to the podcast appropriate now, there you go. I would accept had no idea. Impress your friends.
Mann: [laughs] Here's your accidental fact.
Greer: [laughs] You're activity to be the activity of the party. Or not! OK, guys, acknowledgment for abutting me today!
Argersinger: Thanks, Mac!
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NASCLA, Home Improvement Salesperson Reference Manual (Maryland ... | Renew Home Improvement Salesperson LicenseGreer: As always, bodies on the affairs may accept interests in the stocks they allocution about, and The Motley Fool may accept academic recommendations for or against, so don't buy or advertise stocks based alone on what you hear. That's it for this copy of Bazaar Foolery. The appearance is alloyed by Dan Boyd. I'm Mac Greer. Acknowledgment for listening! We'll see you tomorrow!
John Mackey, CEO of Accomplished Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a affiliate of The Motley Fool's lath of directors. Bill Mann has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Mac Greer owns shares of Amazon, Chipotle Mexican Grill, and Costco Wholesale. Matthew Argersinger owns shares of Amazon, Chipotle Mexican Grill, and Starbucks and has the afterward options: abbreviate December 2017 $900 puts on Amazon. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Amazon, Buffalo Wild Wings, Chipotle Mexican Grill, eBay, Starbucks, and Texas Roadhouse. The Motley Fool has the afterward options: abbreviate January 2018 $170 calls on Home Depot and continued January 2020 $110 calls on Home Depot. The Motley Fool recommends Costco Wholesale, Home Depot, Jones Lang LaSalle, and Stag Industrial. The Motley Fool has a acknowledgment policy.
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