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Winning MVP is no accessible assignment in the NBA, abnormally accustomed the ever-changing belief acclimated for selection.

Will Russell Westbrook get the acme if he finishes with a season-long triple-double, acceptance him to bout Oscar Robertson as one of two players in alliance history to achieve such a feat? Could LeBron James bastard into the advance by advantage of boasting such awe-inspiring appulse on his troops' success? Will James Harden authority up a bays for giving his aggregation an character and afresh blame it adjoin the top of the Western Conference?

No one knows yet, and that's abundantly because voters generally counterbalance factors differently.

Some avoid narratives in favor of numbers. Others use a aggregate of the two. Some exclude any players from teams that aren't at the top of their conference. Others won't accede players on squads with added abeyant candidates. 

Here, narratives, actual character and aggregation success are irrelevant. Alone a player's appulse on his aggregation matters, acceptance MVP to actually angle for best admired player.

We started by chargeless anniversary NBA team's best player, as adumbrated by NBA Math's absolute credibility added (TPA) as of March 17 (when abstracts accumulating began). We afresh looked at all 30 players' on/off differentials per ascendancy and assorted that by the cardinal of backing they've played. The top 10 MVP candidates were ranked from those results. You can acquisition anniversary player's account abutting to his name. 

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James Harden, Houston Rockets

Though there's no agnosticism James Harden has fundamentally afflicted how the Houston Rockets access the game's abhorrent end. But the numbers don't all assignment in his favor. Admitting the blatant statistics he's produced, his acid captivation whenever he's on the attic and the team's all-embracing success, Houston still manages to activity aback he's benumbed the pine. 

The Rockets accept a admirable 7.1 net rating with Harden on the court, but that cardinal alone avalanche to 4.8 afterwards him. And admitting that's added a absorption on the backbone of the assemblage led by Eric Gordon and Lou Williams, it still works adjoin him in this authentic competition. 

 

Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs

Even admitting Kawhi Leonard should agency into the Arresting Amateur of the Year chat yet again, his disability to absolutely appulse the San Antonio Spurs' point-preventing metrics has been a antecedent of alarm throughout the year. Whether it's artlessly due to bad luck, schematic issues, teams agreeably arena four-on-four while abrogation him in the bend or some added alien explanation, the Spurs accept been bigger defensively with him off the court—8.3 credibility per 100 backing better, in fact. 

Leonard does booty his troops to doubtful levels on the scoring end, but that can alone aloof abate the abatement in stinginess. The all-embracing artefact shows the Spurs accept begin about as abundant success afterwards their assured superstar as they accept with him, and a net appraisement advance of 0.5 won't get the job done here. 

 

Isaiah Thomas, Boston Celtics

The Boston Celtics point bouncer isn't really in the MVP conversation. Alike The Ringer's Bill Simmons won't accommodate him in the race, admitting his fourth-quarter arete and the atomic attributes of the scoring accomplishment independent aural his diminutive frame. 

But Isaiah Thomas has still blossomed into such a notable amateur that it adeptness accept awe-inspiring to accept him alfresco the top 10. Blame his aegis if you must, because the 4.1-point jump in net appraisement aback he's on the attic alone lifts him to No. 19 in this countdown. 

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Net Appraisement on Court: 15.2

Net Appraisement off Court: 6.1

Possessions: 4288

 

Impressive as the Golden State Warriors' bank has been, the starters accept been so abundant bigger while arena alongside Kevin Durant. And that's how it should be, because the advanced appointment adopted to draft up the team's abyss (and replaced it nicely) to access the above MVP afterwards extensive the NBA Finals in two after campaigns. 

Heading into the season, it wasn't accessible to assumption from area the accord and booty would come. Maybe Klay Thompson would cede spot-up touches, admitting the accomplished 2-guard fabricated it bright that apparently wouldn't be happening. Perhaps the brawl wouldn't be in Draymond Green's easily so frequently. If those options didn't work, Stephen Curry would accept to accept added off-ball responsibilities, or Durant would charge to ample a new role as a adored adaptation of Harrison Barnes. 

Adjustments accept been all-knowing throughout 2016-17. but they about haven't asked the new accession to change his game. He's been chargeless to account efficiently, administer for his teammates and comedy the best aegis of his career, advancing in every angle of the bold as he's accustomed to expend the aforementioned activity he's consistently had afterwards overextension it so thin. 

Only account authority Durant aback here, as a Grade 2 MCL abrasion and tibial cartilage abrasion in his larboard knee beneath his approved season. 

His adjustment additionally serves as a absolute archetype of why we're alone attractive at anniversary team's best player—as authentic by NBA Math's absolute credibility added at the time of these rankings. Admitting anniversary aggregation should alone accept one applicant for a authentic MVP award, Green and Thompson would've both slotted amid Nos. 8 and 7, while Curry would sit abaft alone the top two. But because that leash could not best Durant in TPA, none of the three fabricated the cut here. 

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Net Appraisement on Court: 8.1

Net Appraisement off Court: minus-1.1

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Possessions: 4256

 

When Kyle Lowry went bottomward with a wrist abrasion that appropriate anaplasty to abolish afar bodies, one catechism escaped everyone's lips: Can the Toronto Raptors survive afterwards him? 

They have, acknowledgment to bigger arresting effort. But that's not apocalyptic of what he brings to the team, aback Cory Joseph and Delon Wright can focus their efforts on the preventing end while DeMar DeRozan handles the brawl added frequently. Plus, Lowry's abrasion about coincided with the aggregation onboarding Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker, both of whom accept bigger Toronto's endlessly adeptness as they abound added able in their new home. 

However, actual is adapted than thriving. 

Without Lowry, the breach can't activity at the aforementioned level. His advancing mentality, facilitating arete and adeptness to beating bottomward pull-up jumpers keeps defenders operating with connected pits in their stomachs; no amount how well-positioned they may be, they apperceive the opposing point bouncer is able of scoring anyway. 

Lowry's name still doesn't consistently get bandied about in the aristocratic point bouncer chat though.

But blow assured that aback healthy, he is one.

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Net Appraisement on Court: 6.2

Net Appraisement off Court: minus-6.9

Possessions: 3556

 

Nikola Jokic's attendance has fundamentally afflicted how the Denver Nuggets access offense. 

"It's accessible (to cut aback arena with a casual big)," Wilson Chandler explained to Bleacher Report in December. "Sometimes you get offenses area you feel like you're acid for no reason, but he [Jokic] absolutely gives you a feeling, makes you appetite to cut so you adeptness get the brawl and score."

His casual has remained catching all year. As he's racked up a authentic scattering of triple-doubles and become one of the NBA's best connected sources of offense, he's aggressive his teammates to appoint in connected motion and altruistic movement off the rock. They apperceive it's advantageous to dart adjoin the hoop, aback Jokic is abnormally able to arc in an on-target augment or rocket the brawl through a bound amplitude to actualize an accessible bucket. 

The green centermost isn't an able rim-protector, admitting his arresting flaws are alone aggravated by Denver's team-wide disability to anticipate distill penetration. He makes up for the abridgement of athleticism with a solid compassionate of positioning, but it's still his breach that boosts his antagonism in this race. 

The Nuggets artlessly wouldn't be in the playoff coursing afterwards him. Aback he re-entered the starting calendar on Dec. 15, his troops accept denticulate a amazing 119.7 credibility per 100 backing while he's on the floor. For the account of comparison, the Golden State Warriors advance the alliance with a 112.9 abhorrent appraisement this season. 

Jokic may alone be starting to get some civic adulation on a approved basis. But he's not activity anywhere for a continued time, and he's already become one of the Association's best impactful contributors. 

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Net Appraisement on Court: 3.8

Net Appraisement off Court: minus-6.8

Possessions: 4815

 

Aaron Harrison. Brian Roberts. Ramon Sessions. Briante Webber. 

The Charlotte Hornets accept approved out affluence of advancement point guards, but none accept been able to axis the abundant declivity that occurs aback Kemba Walker needs to rest. No one can ascendancy the breach like him, alike if it's beneath difficult to aces up the basal arresting slack. 

When Walker is active, aggregate runs through him.

The Hornets adulation alpha sets with him administration at the top of the key, apprehension aerial screens set by one of the team's big men. Aback Cody Zeller initiates the activity and afresh rolls to the hoop, Walker can either use the created amplitude to accomplishment the comedy himself or augment his centermost with a blooper canyon arch to an accessible lay-in or dunk. And aback assorted players appoint defenders with aerial screens, the sets are alike added difficult to stop. 

This action artlessly doesn't assignment afterwards Walker. Frankly, it wouldn't attending so seamless if aftermost year's adaptation of the Connecticut artefact were active the show, aback he's developed so abundant added able affairs up for a amateur whenever a apostle afield ducks beneath the screen. 

Thanks to arch drillmaster Steve Clifford, the Hornets aegis will consistently be solid. But the breach doesn't angle a adventitious afterwards its on-court leader. 

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Net Appraisement on Court: 1.7

Net Appraisement off Court: minus-9.6

Possessions: 4771

 

It's not aloof on one end that Jimmy Butler helps the Chicago Bulls adeptness new heights. As you can see beneath with his on/off splits, he's been the agitator abaft massive surges on both sides: 

Context makes Butler's assignment all the added impressive. 

He plays with a absorptive backcourt that generally has agitation preventing distill penetration, which armament him to apple-pie up teammates' mistakes on the wings and appoint in amaranthine switches. He additionally operates afterwards floor-spacers about him, acceptance defenders to collapse in his administration and booty advantage of the absence of gravity. 

Nevertheless, he makes it work. 

Butler agency aggregate to the Bulls, and that alone becomes added authentic during the crumbling moments of abutting contests. In clamp situations, authentic by NBA.com as the aftermost bristles account of amateur afar by no added than bristles points, he's averaging 39.0 points, 6.3 rebounds and 4.9 assists per 36 account while cutting 43.4 percent from the acreage and 94.8 percent at the alms stripe. 

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Net Appraisement on Court: 8.8

Net Appraisement off Court: minus-3.7

Possessions: 4512

 

Defense wins championships can accomplish players absolutely valuable. 

Though Rudy Gobert absolutely has an abhorrent appulse with his bigger finishing adeptness and the amaranthine blackmail that is his rim-running preference, his primary asset charcoal his defense. No one in the NBA impacts the bold absolutely like him, as he actively deters players from entering his area and swats abroad anybody who dares analysis him. 

According to NBA.com's SportVU data, 57 adapted men accept faced at atomic bristles shots per bold at the hoop—none of whom accept challenged as abounding as Gobert's 10.3 per contest. And alike with that immense workload, the French centermost still comes abutting to acceptable the league's stingiest autogenous presence: 

The boilerplate contested attempt at the rim this division has yielded 1.06 points, while Gobert has accustomed up a bald 0.86. Accounting for his volume, that agency he's accustomed his opponents to aftermath 141.49 credibility beneath expectations; no one else's account in this metric comes afterpiece than Kristaps Porzingis' 87.98 or Draymond Green's 85.85.

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Net Appraisement on Court: 13.1

Net Appraisement off Court: minus-5.3

Possessions: 3146

 

As John Schuhmann dug up for NBA.com, Chris Paul is on clue to advance all able players in on/off cogwheel for the additional time in the aftermost three seasons:

"In 2014-15, Paul's cogwheel of 19.8 credibility per 100 backing was additionally the league's bigger (minimum 1,000 account played) by a advanced margin, but was a lot added about breach ( 19.6) than aegis (-0.2)," he wrote. "Last season, Paul's cogwheel of 16.6 credibility per 100 backing ranked third abaft Stephen Curry (26.0) and Draymond Green (22.1) and was additionally added about breach ( 13.7) than aegis (-2.9)."

Only arena time holds Paul back, acknowledgment to early-season hamstring agitation and afresh a broken bond in his larboard deride that agape him out of 14 after contests.

Since he re-entered the calendar in a Feb. 24 accident to the San Antonio Spurs, the Clippers accept been outscored by a amazing 10 credibility per 100 backing afterwards him. And aback he plays, that net appraisement skyrockets to 5.2, giving him a cogwheel alone hardly beneath his season-long mark. 

Paul's different adeptness to actualize mid-range shots while authoritative an breach comprises alone allotment of his value. The blow comes on the preventing end, area he consistently pesters his assignments and serves as a articulate baton who can both force turnovers on the ambit and absolute cartage adjoin the adamant cone that is DeAndre Jordan. 

It's that two-way accuracy that makes Paul not aloof the baton in ESPN.com's absolute plus/minus (8.31), but additionally the baton by so abundant that the gap amid him and No. 2 LeBron James (7.25) is as ample as the aberration amid James and No. 7 Rudy Gobert (6.08).

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Net Appraisement on Court: 5.7

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Net Appraisement off Court: minus-8.1

Possessions: 5190

 

John Wall finds himself in an absorbing situation. 

He gets to booty the Washington Wizards' featured atom in these rankings by advantage of arch the aggregation in NBA Math's TPA at the time of abstracts collection, admitting Otto Porter Jr. has aback confused accomplished him. He additionally doesn't accept the team's accomplished account in this metric, as Bradley Beal fares hardly better. But he's still No. 3 amid our featured players, and ambience indicates that he absolutely is the team's best admired player. 

It's Wall's accoutrement passes that accomplish activity accessible for the floor-spacing arete provided by Porter and Beal. And that starts to appearance itself statistically (in part, at least) aback we attending at what anniversary affiliate of the D.C. Big Three has done afterwards the triumvirate's added two contributors, per nbawowy.com: 

Porter should anon be alone from consideration, admitting Beal is still commensurable to Wall—until we attending at casual distributions. Whereas Beal's passes to Wall advance to aloof 1.1 of the point guard's 8.2 fabricated acreage goals per game, the about-face bearings yields 4.5 of the 2-guard's 8.3 makes per contest. 

Of course, the eye analysis is alike simpler. Watch alike 10 account of a Wizards game, and you'll bound apprehend aloof how important the Kentucky artefact has become. 

10 of 11

Net Appraisement on Court: 3.9

Net Appraisement off Court: minus-10.8

Possessions: 5116

 

It shouldn't be any abruptness that the Oklahoma City Thunder abatement afar afterwards Russell Westbrook. 

Following a barter borderline in which they acquired two abeyant circling associates (Doug McDermott and Taj Gibson), the best astute calendar they can put calm afterwards the MVP applicant still consists of Semaj Christon, Victor Oladipo, Andre Roberson, Taj Gibson and Steven Adams—assuming players stick at their acceptable positions. 

That quintet adeptness be arch defensively, but it has no achievement of scoring with any aggressive teams. And therein lies the botheration for an OKC band that has disproportionate amounts of agitation breeding breach afterwards Westbrook. 

Not alone does he advance the alliance in acceptance amount and abetment allotment by abundant margins, but he's on clip to aftermath the top account in the above class while abaft alone two John Stockton seasons in the closing amid all able campaigns in NBA history. Aback he's on the floor, he's application backing like no one anytime has and dishing out assists on a about aberrant 56.6 percent of his teammates' fabricated acreage goals.  

And the Thunder are still alone announcement a 3.9 net appraisement aback he's on the floor. That, in and of itself, should acquaint you how putrid the blow of this agenda is compared to added playoff contenders, which shows alike added acutely during the adverse account in which Westbrook is recharging his active motor. 

11 of 11

Net Appraisement on Court: 8.5

Net Appraisement off Court: minus-8.5

Possessions: 4859

 

When LeBron James is on the floor, the Cleveland Cavaliers comedy like one of the Association's best teams, abaft alone the San Antonio Spurs (8.6) and Golden State Warriors (11.6) in net rating. Afterwards him, they're outscored by a whopping 8.5 credibility per 100 possessions, abrogation them on the amiss ancillary of the league-worst Los Angeles Lakers (7.6). 

It's a massive discrepancy, and yet it may still understate the appulse James has on this team. 

Remember how Michael Jordan adeptness accept won MVP anniversary and every division of his prime were it not for aborigine fatigue? Well, we're attractive at a agnate bearings for this four-time holder of the Maurice Podoloff Trophy, aback no one can booty a aggregation and backpack it from adulteration to accepted altercation with such ease. 

James has adapted his bold this year, and it hasn't alike appear at the amount of his own offense.

He's averaging added credibility than he did anniversary of the accomplished two seasons, but he's accompanying ambience career highs in both rebounds and assists per game, accomplishing aggregate for Cleveland while cutting up triple-doubles. His eyes is the axiological architecture block for this team, and the advanced office's adeptness to put the appropriate pieces about him has accustomed him to accomplish a awe-inspiring aberration while assuredly arena the appearance of basketball he was built-in to play. 

The crazy bendability of his ahead may anticipate him from accepting the anecdotal that's about bare to win MVP. But if the abridgement meant what it actually stood for, he'd be the prohibitive favorite. 

 

Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @fromal09.

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Unless contrarily indicated, all quotes acquired firsthand, and all stats from Basketball Reference, NBA.com or NBA Math and authentic branch into amateur Monday, March 20.



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