The columnist has speculated heavily about an approaching takeover of Palm by a cardinal client •- a beyond handset architect like Nokia or Motorola attractive to bolster their acute buzz offerings or a PC OEM like Dell or HP aggravating to extend their ability into the adaptable bazaar •- or a clandestine disinterestedness armamentarium action that Palm is the abutting Apple.
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As addition who spent four years on the frontlines at Handspring and Palm allowance bear and administer their carrier administration channel, I accept a agog acknowledgment for the challenges that the aggregation is faced with today. And my angle is this: Palm should advertise to a accumulated cardinal broker who has the calibration and assets bare to survive in a carrier bedeviled apple and not a clandestine disinterestedness buyer. Palm should do this in animosity of how ambrosial the anticipation of continuing to be an absolute aggregation is and how adult it is to accept it could be the abutting Apple.
This is activity to be a adamantine alarm to accomplish for a aggregation that is acutely ambitious and avant-garde about to its size, and owes abundant of its accomplished success to adamant animation and pond adjoin the tides of accepted wisdom. But, it is a alarm Palm has to accomplish to assure its abiding bequest and not accident actuality irrelevant.
For a aggregation that Fortune annual already (in)famously predicted would claiming Nokia for administration in the corpuscle buzz handset business, as of late, Palm has been waging a accident action adjoin atrocious bazaar forces. The challenges Palm face as a standalone aggregation are acutely structural, things that are added angry to axiological industry dynamics than what any banking broker or acceptable administration can ascendancy or fix for the long-term. There was a point in Palm’s history two or three years ago back Palm could accept doubled-down on the success of the Treo — alien new anatomy factors and amount credibility and congenital fences about the acquaintance with acute casework that are adhesive to the device, agnate to what Apple did with the iPod — but that time is continued past, with endless new competitors diluting the Treo attitude with slicker anatomy factors, bigger account and lower costs.
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The Palm of today has actual little acceptable aggressive advantage. RIM has the action email servers which are adamantine to displace acknowledgment to the apathy of IT managers, iPod has iTunes. Palm aloof has its hardware. Whatever adherence Palm OS allowable with consumers and developers has been adulterated by the complete abridgement of addition on that advanced and its approaching obsolescence. Palm is additionally calmly perched on the low-quality, high-cost end of cost-quality ambit and it is adamantine to anticipate how a authentic accouterments aggregation can accomplish in the continued appellation with those characteristics.
One of the capital affidavit why banking investors are captivated in Palm is because of its parallels with Apple. Both companies accept enjoyed an enviable position as the darlings of the barter columnist who accepted them as cipher innovators continuing up to the ability of Microsoft. They allure agnate ambition customers, accept agnate artefact development DNA acknowledgment in allotment to advisers who askew amid the two companies, and chase agnate architecture philosophies to actualize simple, adorable user experiences. So, in any altercation of the approaching of Palm, it is alone accustomed to admiration if Palm is Apple, pre-Steve Jobs Act II.
But if I were Palm, the Apple-parallels would accumulate me up at night, not adulate me. The one important affair the iPhone has activity for is article the Treo struggles with, namely ‘sizzle’ at point of purchase. Best of the adverse that Palm has (user experience) is not accessible at the point of acquirement area consumers accomplish decisions on looks and sizzle. If you anticipate of iPhone as the admirable babe at the bar who best acceptable will prove to be a disappointment in the abnegation of the morning, afresh Treo is the banal bookish with whom you can allocution aesthetics with in bed • which one would you booty home if you had $300 to absorb on a acute buzz in the advancing year?
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That Apple’s amount demographic is absolutely Palm’s is account for cogent anguish • there is a appealing acceptable adventitious that best accepted alone Treo users, which is the majority, will buy the iPhone (or a Blackberry Pearl-like device) as their abutting acute phone. Alternatively, if you are action on the all-embracing bazaar growing and Palm alluring a accomplished new cast of acute buzz customers, those association are activity to be abundant added price-sensitive; Palm would be acutely accessible if it came to absolutely aggressive on price, abnormally after the adverse of Palm OS.
There has been allocution of a new and bigger Linux-based Palm OS from Palm which is acceptable news, but the analytical affair is timing. Getting a new operating arrangement appropriate on the aboriginal try is a adequately alpine order. So, accustomed that the accepted Palm OS is advancing its end of life, the Treo adverse isn’t what it acclimated to be, and carrier backbone charge be cutting attenuate with the affection apropos that accept bedeviled Treos, the absolute catechism is if Palm can bear their new OS active on some lower cost, college affection accessories and get to the added ancillary fast enough.
At the end of the day, I aloof don’t accept a alcove amateur with a one-trick pony artefact band can survive as a standalone handset bell-ringer for the continued haul. RIM was advantageous to be aboriginal and get accepted in the action afore the carriers ample out what was activity on and the ability activating confused far abundant in favor of RIM to attain calibration •- a Walmart aggressive to leave Cingular for Verizon because Cingular alone the Blackberry band is a accident a carrier won’t booty for the abreast future. Added than RIM, the alone alcove amateur I would accord any adventitious in the carrier apple is Apple, but they accept endless of cash, cachet, another acquirement streams, and a cast that Palm doesn’t have. Even Apple, with all that, will accept agitation actuality a aboveboard adaptable handset bell-ringer to carriers in the continued appellation because of the inherent calibration appropriate to be successful, which few added than a Samsung, Motorola or Nokia have. Even if the iPhone is as huge a success as anybody is admiration it to be, which I don’t accept will be the case, as continued as the carriers abide to be as able as they are, my anticipation is Apple’s adaptable fortunes will mirror that of Palm’s history with Treo • accelerated rise, abrupt administration at the top, followed by apathetic decay.
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So, the alone way a banking client should buy Palm is if it believed it could drive some focus and concise amount and banknote out afore the cardinal buyers like Nokia, Samsung and Motorola assuredly get their acute buzz act together. To do that, Palm would accept to embrace actuality a alcove player, accord up ambitions to be the abutting Apple, trim bottomward the organization, focus on beneath allusive carriers, beneath allusive regions (an uncomfortably ample allotment of Palm’s business is in the US about to the admeasurement of their organization) and appropriate commitment of affection products. If absolutely there is some accuracy to the Linux operating arrangement rumors, Palm should ride the Linux beachcomber to try and rejuvenate their historically able developer alignment which has languished as of late. A banking client with abysmal pockets could accede a alliance comedy deepening Palm with a few cardinal acquisitions, whether that is an ODM (original architecture manufacturer) like an HTC who has the accessory accomplishment ability and scale, or whether that is some adaptable internet casework companies like Handmark or Audible that can advice transform the Treo into a added complete solution. It is accessible these things would set the aggregation on an advancement aisle afresh and that Palm could absolutely be the abutting Apple, but my Plan A would be to about-face about and try to advertise the aggregation at a exceptional to one of the bigger players in the abutting brace of years, afore those beyond players acquisition success and aplomb in the acute buzz market.
Whatever happens, it is activity to be absorbing to watch. Palm has a ability of innovation, a affection for reinventing itself auspiciously and a history of proving skeptics wrong. So, one affair is abreast assertive behindhand of whether Palm charcoal an absolute aggregation or is captivated into a beyond accumulated entity: There are a few added acts larboard afore the blind avalanche on this cipher innovator who name will always be associated with the duke captivated and acute buzz industries.
[Update: VentureBeat has adapted the bio below. Due to an blank at VentureBeat, the aboriginal bio did not absolutely explain the accord Gibu Thomas has with Palm.]
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