Published on October 7th, 2017 | by Michael Barnard
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October 7th, 2017 by Michael Barnard
Elon Musk was presenting affairs for Mars trips at a amplitude industry appointment on September 29th, back he alternate to one of his favourite subjects: apathetic traveling amid credibility on Earth. Details were light, but he showed a appealing video of the abstraction of one of SpaceX’s BFR* systems ablution from a harbour and landing on the added ancillary of the world. (*BFR = Big Falcon Rocket)
Counter-intuitively, based on my calculations, the BFR archetypal would acceptable see about 40% of the carbon brand of commuter jet biking on a per commuter abject afore assured accessory and tertiary furnishings kicked in, or up to a beneath acceptable 240% of the carbon footprint.
Suborbital biking amid cities has been a basic of science fiction for decades, but science actuality has been in abbreviate supply. Musk’s latest admittance into the biking industry is in band with The Boring Company and Hyperloop in that it’s berserk altered than the cachet quo and additionally acutely cool to about-face into annihilation real.
Others accept already dealt with the rather cool elements of the solution, including crushing G forces, radiation exposure, ablution and landing actual ample rockets abutting to above burghal centres, and the not so bizarre botheration of atomic failure.
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But what about carbon footprint? Would it be worse than commuter jet biking today? Someone on the “March for Science” Facebook armpit asked this, so I absitively it was time for some napkin math. As always, the accomplished strangers over at Quora did a acceptable job of befitting my algebraic honest on things like this, acceptance me to present numbers with some amount of confidence.
The SpaceX BFR was originally envisioned as a aqueous oxygen (LOX) and aqueous hydrogen (LH2) rocket but confused in 2012 to methane (CH4) and LOX. It’s aboveboard to actualize LH2 and LOX in an environmentally affable way application wind and solar electricity and water, an abstraction I explored for Amplitude Shuttle flights in one of the advertence links, but best hydrogen is created from accustomed gas. Similarly, methane is about absolutely acquired from accustomed gas, as it represents 88–92% of the artlessly occurring gas. Biomethane is created in abundant beyond volumes than carbon aloof hydrogen today and has apparent abbreviating carbon aisle as well. Methane is 25 to 86 times added almighty as a greenhouse gas than CO2, so leaks (which will occur) are a concern, but back burned, it creates a lot of CO2. The primary point of this is that there are lower-carbon forms of rocket ammunition available, but the appraisal will use accustomed carbon fuels to analyze rockets to jet ammunition trips.
There are a few assumptions and ambit boundaries to set:
Assuming abounding fuelling, the BFR will aftermath about 4,400 bags of CO2 per barrage and landing based on accumulation the 240 bags of CH4 and 860 bags O2 of ammunition in Stage 2 additional the ammunition in the booster. That gives about 7.2 bags per commuter per cruise for the BFR for aloof the abject ammunition use. The well-to-rocket emissions are 40% college bold agnate for CNG cars, so it’s absolutely afterpiece to 10 bags per commuter trip. Agenda that the majority of the added 40% is compression and cooling, which is additionally acquiescent to low-carbon electricity and so could be reduced.
However, it acceptable won’t be absolutely fuelled because suborbital is abundant easier than orbital. The best burden to apogee for BFR is advised to be 151,000 kg. Bold 620 bodies with seats, luggage, their anatomy mass, oxygen, and water, it’s apparently in the ambit of 230 kg per commuter all in for a absolute accumulation of about 143,000 kg, aural the absolute limit. It’s a bit of a rounding absurdity absolutely with this akin of napkin math, so I won’t acclimatize for that.
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I will acclimatize for the suborbital vs alternate ammunition requirement. Per the antecedent begin with a minimum of searching, that’s a arrangement of 4 to 5 times the accumulation to ammunition change. That antecedent is a debunking of a accepted aphorism of deride of a 64 times factor, but it’s bourgeois for this purpose. As a result, instead of 4,400 bags of CO2, it’s acceptable in the ambit of 1,100 bags of CO2, or about 1.4 bags of CO2 per commuter for the abject ammunition use. Adding the 40% gives potentially 2 bags per passenger.
747s aftermath the agnate of 0.25 bags of CO2 per hour of aerial well-to-wings per commuter including takeoff, landing and canoeing at altitude. Bold 16,000 afar flight at 920 km/h, you are in the ambit of 17.5 hours aerial time, so you’d be seeing almost 4.4 bags of CO2 per passenger.
Assuming these bounds, it appears as if the BFR will acceptable accept lower CO2 emissions per commuter than a 747 aerial the aforementioned distance, about from 40% of the carbon brand up to the cool high apprenticed of 240% of the total. Altered planes accept altered discharge profiles of course, and planes accept biofuel choices today. Arising amalgam electric planes and added arising lower carbon choices will additionally lower air biking emissions. And agenda that addition acknowledgment to the aforementioned Quora catechism appropriate college carbon emissions application altered assumptions, including 200 passengers.
While biomethane is a actual attainable addition ammunition today, it’s additionally about 19% added big-ticket according to one abstracts point that seems reasonable. Given the already lower carbon brand and the advised abridgement chic model, it’s ambiguous whether biomethane would be sourced. Given that SpaceX isn’t application carbon-neutral fuels today, it’s cool to do so tomorrow.
Note additionally that addition appraisal with altered assumptions appropriate 7–10 times added CO2 per passenger. It’s account blockage out that Quora answer. I like my numbers, but endemic are acute as well.
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Musk ability accept article that would accomplish the apple alike abate and be added carbon neutral. The amount and acumen ability annihilate it, but not the acceleration and apparently not the carbon footprint. Of course, if it took off and added bodies hopped to the added ancillary of the apple than do today, the net aftereffect would still be added greenhouse gases. Having catholic beyond the equator and all-embracing dateline several times, I can advance that the continuance of biking is as abundant an inhibitor as the cost.
Sources:
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Michael Barnard For the accomplished several years Michael has been allegory and publishing letters and accessories on decarbonization technologies, business models and policies. His pieces on electrical bearing transformation and electrification of busline accept been appear in CleanTechnica, Newsweek, Slate, Forbes, Huffington Post, Quartz, RenewEconomy, RenewablesInternational and Gizmag, as able-bodied as included in textbooks. Third-party accessories on his analyses and interviews with Mike accept been appear in dozens of account sites globally and accept accomplished #1 on Reddit Science. Abundant of his assignment originates on Quora.com, area Mike has been a Top Writer annually back 2012. He additionally has appear a climate-fiction novel, Guangzhou Future Tense.
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